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ATP Tennis Betting: Heavy-hitting Vesely to prove too strong for Bedene in Buenos Aires

ATP Tennis Betting: Heavy-hitting Vesely to prove too strong for Bedene in Buenos Aires

There's more round one action from Rotterdam, Buenos Aires and New York on Tuesday on the ATP World Tour and Sean Calvert likes the chances of Jiri Vesely at the Argentina Open.


Martin Klizan’s failure to serve out the second set from *40-15 against Feli Lopez was to prove costly on Monday, as Lopez, who had served well all match, produced five aces in the ensuing tie break to punish Klizan for his profligacy.

ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament

We’ve got six matches from round one on the card at the Ahoy Stadium in Rotterdam on Tuesday and the one that I was toying with for a while was to take Gilles Muller as underdog against Daniil Medvedev in the second match of the day on Centre Court.

Medvedev’s indoor hard stats are nothing to get excited about at all, with a 93.6 service hold/break total in his 12 main level matches over the past year and he doesn’t have a great record against either big servers or lefties as yet in his career.

The young Russian ihas won only two of his six against the big servers on my database and one of those was a final set tie break success over Reilly Opelka, while the other was on his favoured grass against Sam Querrey.

Medvedev has lost his last four against lefties (Mannarino, Bemelmans, Lopez and Shapovalov) and six of his nine in total at main level on all surfaces, so I couldn’t possibly back him as favourite here, with inferior hold/break numbers as well as questionable records against big servers and lefties.

What puts me off is that Muller doesn’t look right with that elbow issue at the moment and I’d guess he’s probably in a fair bit of pain with it. He certainly doesn’t look near his best form since that time off with it last season.

Philipp Kohlschreiber is another senior statesman of the tour who’s struggling right now after no wins this season and a virus issue that made his spell in Australia a pretty miserable one.

If he’s fit though he could prove a decent underdog against Karen Khachanov, whose stats are similarly mediocre to those of his fellow Russian, Medvedev.

Benoit Paire is another that’s suffering from physical problems, with the flaky Frenchman having back issues that keep cropping up and affecting his serve, which, along with his general moodiness, makes him hard to back with any confidence.

He faces David Goffin, who Paire has beaten three times from their last four meetings, but Paire doesn’t look in the sort of condition to improve upon that record at the moment.

Tallon Griekspoor has been comfortably beaten both times he’s played in Rotterdam in the past and he hasn’t actually played a match since last November due to a right foot injury.

So, it’s fair to assume he’ll struggle a bit against former Rotterdam champion Stan Wawrinka, despite Stan having been beaten by Mirza Basic in Sofia a few days ago.

Another one I considered before the prices came out was Jan-Lennard Struff to beat Viktor Troicki, with the German much the better of the pair on indoor hard on the hold/break numbers, but 1.66 isn’t the sort of price I was after on Struff.

The much-hyped Canadian youngster Felix Auger-Aliassime makes his main draw ATP World Tour debut in the night match against the injury prone Serb Filip Krajinovic at around 20:00 UK time.

The 17-year-old Auger-Aliassime is the youngest player to make the top-200 since Rafael Nadal, but he’s played only four matches so far at main level events, all in qualies, losing three (to Stakhovsky, Duckworth and Benneteau).

He’s been injured since just prior to Christmas, with a knee problem picked up in practice, so he only played his first matches of the season last week in the Budapest Challenger on indoor hard, beating Blaz Rola before a heavy loss to Constant Lestienne.

Krajinovic has barely played so far this season either, due to yet another injury, this time the Achilles, and Auger-Aliassime did beat the Serb en-route to the Seville Challenger title on clay two months before Krajinovic came from nowhere to make the Paris Masters final.

Probably not the best of matches to be betting on, this, but very interesting to see what sort of shape both players are in and how Auger-Aliassime takes to a big stage.

Argentina Open

There are seven matches on the card at the Buenos Aires Lawn Tennis Club on Tuesday, with our man Diego Schwartzman a heavy favourite against Andreas Haider-Maurer, who’s playing off his protected ranking this week after long-term injury.

Probably the match of the day from a fan’s point of view will be the second match of the day on Court Guillermo Vilas, which is Gael Monfils versus Pablo Cuevas in a fifth career meeting.

Both of their prior clashes on clay have been tight, hence the prices today, and while there’s every chance of an ‘upset’ with Cuevas taking it the Uruguayan is too short for my liking at 2.10 considering he was a 3.35 chance when he beat Monfils on clay in their most recent encounter.

Jiri Vesely vs Aljaz Bedene

There are a few reasons to side with Vesely in this opening match of the day on Estadio 2 at around 17:00 UK time, not least the struggles of Bedene against lefties and his poor record in South America.

Vesely’s extra power and bigger serve have been the difference in their two previous career meetings, both on the clay, and Bedene’s results are worse at main level against lefties than righties.

Bedene has lost eight of his last 10 main level matches versus left-handers and three of his last four on clay against them.

The Slovenian is just 2-7 at main level in South America, losing his last five, and he’s played only one match on the Golden Swing since 2014.

Vesely has only played three matches in total on the Golden Swing and lost them all, but that doesn’t tell the whole story, as the Czech was a set and 6-3 up in the second set tie break against Fabio Fognini and a 1.03 shot before failing to get over the line in one of them.

Another was a narrow deciding set loss to Pablo Cuevas in Sao Paulo (five points the difference in total) when Cuevas went on to win the title, so he’s played well without success against elite clay operators thus far on this swing.

Bedene was still struggling with the knee injury that caused him lots of problems last season in Australia when he was interviewed ahead of Davis Cup a couple of weeks ago, saying: “I returned in Australia after injury, although I have not fully recovered. I played some strong matches against top players, which is good for the start of the season, but I certainly have a lot to do to strengthen my knee so that the situation will not get worse.”

All told the 1.87 on Vesely seems the bet here.

Kyle Edmund makes his comeback from injury after a hugely successful Australian Open against Quito winner Roberto Carballes Baena, who has a quick turnaround after Sunday’s title win.

In these circumstances Edmund should be too strong and I’d expect Leonardo Mayer to also have too much game for Rogerio Dutra Silva, who had enteritis in Quito and had two tough matches in qualies here.

In any case Mayer should have too much power for Dutra Silva, but 1.46 on the Argentine is hardly wager material.

Fernando Verdasco has a good record against fellow lefties on clay, which puts me off taking a chance on Thiago Monteiro, who also has to make the adjustment from playing at altitude in Quito a matter of days ago.

They still haven’t finished qualifying in New York, so there’s no chance of an order of play there until much later than the time of writing, so there isn’t a lot to add about that tournament just at the moment.

Best Bet

1 point win Vesely to beat Bedene at 1.87





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Sean Calvert
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