ATP Tennis Betting: De Bakker can cause problems for Haase in all-Dutch clash in Rotterdam

ATP Tennis Betting: De Bakker can cause problems for Haase in all-Dutch clash in Rotterdam

Roger Federer is among those in action at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament on Wednesday, but Sean Calvert's attention is drawn to some value in the all-Dutch affair earlier in the day in Rotterdam.

Debrief

It was one of those hard to fathom days on the ATP Tour on Tuesday, with some top notch choking around, not least from the likes of Karen Khachanov and Steve Johnson – two men with plenty of form in that area.

Stan Wawrinka was beaten by world number 259 Tallon Griekspoor, who’d never won a main level match before, and our man Jiri Vesely was thumped by Aljaz Bedene in a dismal performance in Buenos Aires.

ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament

Roger Federer’s attempt to grab the world number one ranking in Rotterdam this week start on Wednesday, while there are a further eight matches on the card for us to evaluate on day three.

Robin Haase vs Thiemo De Bakker

I had to laugh earlier in the week when the not-quite-the full-ticket Rotterdam Tournament Director, Richard Krajicek, was quoted as saying that Robin Haase could win a Grand Slam.

“I do not exclude that a Dutchman will ever win a Grand Slam,” he reportedly said. “You have to be lucky, but why should Robin Haase not win such a big tournament? He has progressed enormously in the last year."

Would this be the same Robin Haase that’s won 16 of his 52 career Grand Slam matches? Or the one that’s progressed so much that he’s won two of his last 12 at majors and was beaten by Lorenzo Sonego in Melbourne? Maybe it’s not the same one that hasn’t won back-to-back matches at a major since Wimbledon 2011?

Whatever, the real Robin Haase could well show Krajicek on Wednesday just why he’s got no chance of winning a major – and that’s due to his inability to handle any sort of pressure – on this occasion it’ll be the pressure of playing at home.

Some players thrive on it and others don’t and it has to be said that not many Dutch men in recent times have been able to do anything of any note in Rotterdam (apart from Griekspoor, but he was facing a shadow of Wawrinka), with Haase 4-8 here and De Bakker 3-8.

Looking at Haase’s hold/break stats at this tournament we find that he’s held serve 76.6% of the time and broken 13.1% of the time, while De Bakker finds breaking serve here even tougher, with 11.9% breaks of serve.

Haase has only won one match in Rotterdam since 2008 and although De Bakker is currently ranked 352 in the world and mainly plays Futures and Challengers these days his results in Davis Cup are still decent.

He beat Adrian Mannarino a couple of weeks ago in Davis Cup and the match prior to that he beat Lukas Rosol and he’s beaten Haase three times, including the most recent meeting last July at the Scheveningen Challenger.

It’s more than possible that De Bakker could win this one and he’s worthy of consideration at 3.0, while the over 21.5 games is decent too, as is the 2.28 on tie break played.

De Bakker plays 0.30 tie breaks per set in Rotterdam and four of their six career clashes (five of which were on clay) have featured a tie break, plus the chances of some top level choking when sets are being served out is very likely with this pair.

Even Haase himself doesn’t sound too confident (although I’d like to have him as my bookie): “Thiemo always plays well against me and is the favourite, because he beat me last time,” Haase said, doing his best Rafa Nadal impression.

Richard Gasquet vs Pierre Hugues-Herbert

This pair clashed last week on home soil in Montpellier, where Gasquet reached the final, and I’m always very wary of backing the Gasman after he’s made a final the previous week.

Herbert pushed Gasquet hard in Montpellier and he needs to do well this week to avoid a big drop in ranking after making the semis in this ATP 500 event 12 months ago.

At the time of writing Herbert is down at number 112 (dropping 32 spots) in the live rankings, so he should be motivated to do well and perhaps Gasquet less so at an event he’s rarely performed well at.

I think there’s a couple of reasons for Gasquet’s results in Rotterdam, the first one being the low-bouncing conditions don’t really suit his game, and secondly it’s in the calendar between Montpellier and Marseille.

He almost always does well in Montpellier and he usually plays Marseille as well, although he’s not officially entered this year (a late wild card after an early exit here might be possible though).

Fabrice Santoro coaches both Gasquet and Herbert and it’s never easy to play someone you spend a lot of time practicing with, as Gasquet showed in Montpellier.

Herbert had to work hard to come through qualies in Rotterdam, beating Ricardas Berankis in a final set tie break (saving a match point) and also winning from a set down versus Uladzimir Ignatik.

He’ll be the one more familiar with conditions though and I like the 2.75 on him taking the first set over Gasquet here, with the 2.45 on tie break played also appealing.

Two of last week’s other finalists, Lucas Pouille and Marius Copil, are both market drifters for their Wednesday matches, presumably due to fatigue from Davis Cup (Copil) and their efforts in Montpellier and Sofia respectively.

I’d have fancied Damir Dzumhur against Copil in these conditions and circumstances, but not at 1.46, and similarly Andrey Rublev’s very attacking game could well pose problems for Pouille, however Rublev as favourite doesn’t appeal.

Grigor Dimitrov has been struggling with a shoulder problem that kept him out of his home event in Sofia last week, so how fit is he?

“It is getting better definitely.,” Dimitrov said a few days ago. “I was able to practice for five, six days. Starting to serve a little faster. I’m almost feeling at hundred percent now.”

He may be rusty though, but Yuichi Sugita doesn’t seem that likely to take advantage unless Dimitrov goes down in a slew of unforced errors.

Roger Federer used to play this event a lot in his younger days, but his last match in Rotterdam was a loss to Julien Benneteau in 2013 and it’s pretty obvious that he’s here this week to take back the top spot in the rankings.

It’s tough to see Ruben Bemelmans putting a spanner in the works of that plan and I’m not too sure that Andreas Seppi is up to beating Alexander Zverev either, with the Italian taking six weeks off after this week for more treatment on his ongoing hip problems.

Tomas Berdych has won his last 14 sets in a row against Viktor Troicki and the Czech has a very solid record in Rotterdam, so an upset seems unlikely there too, while David Goffin is yet to drop a set to Feli Lopez either and in slowish conditions like these in Rotterdam you’d have to fancy Goffin in that one.

Best Bets

1 point win tie break played in Haase/De Bakker at 2.28
1 point win Herbert to win set one at 2.75

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