ATP Tennis Betting: Time for Shapovalov to step up in Delray Beach

ATP Tennis Betting: Time for Shapovalov to step up in Delray Beach

Week eight of the ATP World Tour 2018 has tournaments on clay, outdoor hard and indoor hard in Rio, Delray Beach and Marseille and Sean Calvert returns with his outright picks for the week.

Debrief

Last season we seemed to be falling at the semi final stage most weeks and so far this year it’s been the quarter finals, with another in week seven when Diego Schwartzman lost as a 1.50 favourite at home in Buenos Aires, with the top seeds in his half already out.

We had no luck in New York either, with Peter Gojowczyk retiring in round two due to blisters, while Ryan Harrison’s widely publicised row with Donald Young and subsequent denials of racial slurs by Harrison can’t have been helpful and he lost to Ivo Karlovic.

The 25-1 on each was good value, but blisters and an off-putting controversy were hardly foreseeable, yet typical of the kind of luck we’ve had so far in 2018, where we’ve had seven quarter finalists already and each one has lost or retired injured.

Conditions

The Open 13 Provence is played on an indoor Gerfloor surface, which is one of the quicker ones around, so it favours the player that gets ahead early in the rallies and most champions here tend to be powerful hitters or attacking players. Only Gilles Simon in 2015 has bucked that trend in the last nine years in Marseille.

At the Delray Beach Open it’s usually on the slow side of medium on an outdoor Plexipave surface, which bounces quite high, and gets slower at night. Strong wind is also a factor at the Delray Beach Tennis Centre on the coast north of Fort Lauderdale. Every champion this decade has possessed a big serve and lots of power off the ground.

It’s usually a bit quicker on the clay in Rio than it is in Buenos Aires, with Head balls in use and it’s usually very hot and humid. This will be the fifth year of the tournament and past champions are all excellent clay courters: Dominic Thiem, Rafa Nadal, David Ferrer and Pablo Cuevas.

Open 13

The withdrawal of David Goffin meant a change in the draw and the top half in Marseille now looks to be between Tomas Berdych, Roberto Bautista Agut, Damir Dzumhur and perhaps Karen Khachanov.

There are still qualifiers to be added to the draw, but none look like title contenders, and Berdych has to be the pick to prevail from the top half of the draw.

It looks too quick for Dzumhur here (and probably for Khachanov too) so the likely semi final would be between Berdych and RBA and in these quick indoor conditions the Czech looks the likely winner.

He was unlucky last week to become ill ahead of his quarter final against Goffin and the former Marseille finalist (lost from a couple of points away from a 2-0 win in 2013) first the profile of a champion here, with his powerful game likely to be too big for this field – the top half of the draw at least.

The bottom half looks a bit trickier, but I can’t ignore the 50-1 about Paris finalist Filip Krajinovic, who has very good hold/break stats over his last 10 matches at main level indoors (106.1 total) for a player priced up at 50-1.

The Serb is a constant injury worry, with the Achilles being the latest part of his body to break down, but he seems to be over that now and he played pretty well in Rotterdam last week and this Marseille field is a fair bit weaker.

Lucas Pouille is the obvious danger in Krajinovic’s quarter, but with Pouille at 3-1 and second seed Stan Wawrinka a 9-2 chance I’d rather take the price on Krajinovic.

Wawrinka looks some way off his best – certainly in terms of putting it all together in consecutive matches – and was beaten by Mirza Basic and Tallon Griekspoor in Sofia and Rotterdam, so I’m more worried about Pouille, who made the final here last year.

Daniil Medvedev looked to be struggling with a thigh problem in Rotterdam, while Gilles Muller hasn’t found his best form after a break for an elbow issue that seems to be ongoing.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a big-priced one came through the Wawrinka section and the winner of Nicolas Mahut versus Stefanos Tsitsipas seems the most likely, but I’m happy to risk Krajinovic at a big price here.

Rio Open

This ATP 500 event in Brazil is a tough test for the dirtballers in the heat of humidity of Rio, which is expected to be stormy and rainy all week, so expect delays.

Dominic Thiem is looking in fine form back on the clay, so it’s the top half of the draw that interests me, with top seed Marin Cilic making his debut on the Golden Swing after pulling out of Buenos Aires citing fatigue as the reason.

His half of the draw is packed with talent, with former champ Pablo Cuevas in there, along with Gael Monfils (who Cilic will probably face in round one), Diego Schwartzman, Guido Pella, Albert Ramos, Federico Delbonis, and Casper Ruud to name a few.

And of these Cuevas and Pella stand out, with the 50-1 on Pella looking like value in a winnable section of the draw for the Argentine, who played well last week in Buenos Aires before running into Thiem, and Pella is a former finalist here (beat Thiem en route).

Pella’s hold/break total of 108.6 (79.6% holds/29% breaks) on clay at main level in the past 12 months is excellent for a 50-1 chance and facing a qualifier first up is preferable to getting a fired up Thiago Monteiro in round one, which is the draw Cuevas has.

Monteiro loves it here and is the kind of aggressive opponent that Cuevas sometimes struggles with, which is far from ideal for a Cuevas that needs matches and was rusty last week in a loss to Monfils.

It’s an open quarter and high seed Ramos also faces a Brazilian first up in Rogerio Dutra Silva, so perhaps the home players could do us an early favour by getting rid of the seeds in round one.

In the bottom half it’s hard to back against Thiem, who won Buenos Aires without too much bother and back-to-back titles isn’t beyond the Austrian, but Leonardo Mayer at 33-1 could go well at a big price if he can get past Fernando Verdasco in round one.

Fabio Fognini is always a risky option and at half the price of Mayer, who beat Fognini last week in Buenos Aires, the Italian doesn’t seem great value at 16-1.

Delray Beach Open

It’s set to be windy as usual all week in Delray Beach, according to the weather forecast, and I’ve seen Adrian Mannarino have at least one meltdown here, partly due to the tough conditions.

Others have succumbed to the wind too and if we look at the record of Ivo Karlovic here as an example the big man’s results are wildly up and down at this venue.

High winds make serving tricky and Karlovic has made two finals in Delray Beach (winning one) and also lost to Edouard Roger-Vasselin, Donald Young, John-Patrick Smith and Marinko Matosevic to name a few.

Indeed, Karlovic could gran an unwanted hat-trick of losing to lefties this year, as he’ll face Denis Shapovalov after losing to Young and Smith the past two years at Delray Beach.

Shapovalov has played well against big servers so far in his career, beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (should have beaten him again in Melbourne at the Open in January), Nick Kyrgios, Juan Martin Del Potro and Reilly Opelka, so Karlovic on a slowish hard court is certainly winnable for the Canadian.

It’s an interesting bottom half and Sam Querrey, Hyeon Chung and Juan Martin Del Potro all have claims, as would Mannarino if he doesn’t have a meltdown this year.

Querrey won here in 2016 (beating Del Potro on the way) and Delpo has an 11-2 record at Delray Beach, so those two are obvious threats, as is Chung, but he’s likely to be rusty after a break following those horrible blisters that he incurred in Melbourne.

The flatter hitters might find it tricky in the wind and I prefer those who use a bit more top spin when it’s windy at this venue, so Chung is overlooked and with Delpo a 4.50 chance and Querrey playing a final in New York I’ll take a chance on Shapovalov in the bottom half.

The top half sees the two finalists that would have faced each other in 2017, Jack Sock and Milos Raonic, drawn together in round one 12 months after Raonic withdrew from the final.

With John Isner, Kevin Anderson, Steve Johnson and Nick Kyrgios all together in that half, plus Ryan Harrison and his mate Donald Young (who has a good recent record here) that top half looks tough to call.

Conclusion

In Marseille Berdych looks the one most likely, but at 5.0 and coming off an illness it doesn’t seem like great value, so half a point each-way on Krajinovic only for me.

Over in Rio I like Pella’s price of 50-1 in that wide open top half of the draw, but it’s so stacked with talent that I’ll just take half a point each-way on that one as well.

Denis Shapovalov’s draw looks good if he can get past Karlovic and 25-1 about a player of his talent will do for me in Florida this week.

Best Bets

1 point win Shapovalov to win Delray Beach at 26.0
0.5 points each-way Krajinovic to win Marseille at 51.0
0.5 points each-way Pella to win Rio at 51.0

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