ATP Tennis Betting: Mayer should have too much for Zverev on day one in Barcelona

ATP Tennis Betting: Mayer should have too much for Zverev on day one in Barcelona

The ATP World Tour stops off at the Barcelona Open and Budapest Open in week 16 on the clay and Sean Calvert brings us the lowdown on Monday’s play at both events.

It was the expected tough start to the clay swing for daily wagers in Monte-Carlo, with only 11 underdogs winning from a 55-match draw, so it was slim pickings indeed for value seekers in week 15.

We’re in Barcelona and Budapest in week 16 and the former tournament has some interesting trends over it’s last five renewals between 2013 and 2017, with the first noticeable stat being total games.

There’s been 35/65 split between over 22.5 games and under 22.5 games, with 65% of the matches finishing in under 22.5, and it was also the same in the opening year of Budapest last season, with a whopping 72% of the matches ended in under 22.5 games.

Budapest could have been an anomaly, with it being the inaugural year of that tournament and it moves to a new venue this year as well, but 65% is quite a strong five-year trend towards unders.

Tie breaks, as you’d expect, are quite scarce in Barcelona, but with playing conditions at the Real Club de Tenis Barcelona quicker than in Monte-Carlo it does follow that there are slightly more tie break matches here (29% to Monte-Carlo’s 25%).

In the years 2013-2016 there were an average of 27% underdog winners, which is the same as in Monte-Carlo (2013-2017), but last season’s Barcelona Open saw a whopping 50% of the matches won by the betting underdog.

Hopefully that 2017 trend will continue this year, but it seems more likely to have been just a freak year.

There are 10 matches on the card in Barcelona on Monday, starting from 10:00 UK time and a couple of small wagers appeal on day one.

Leonardo Mayer vs Mischa Zverev

Mayer returns to the tour this week after skipping Monte-Carlo citing a lower back injury, but assuming that he’s fit for duty this week he shoukd have few problems getting the better of Zverev on clay.

Indeed, it’s proven a nice match-up for Mayer on all surfaces, with the Argentine beating the German four times from their five career meetings and twice in the last six months.

Those two recent clashes came on indoor hard and outdoor hard when Zverev was favourite on each occasion, but Mayer won each time, although it should be noted that Zverev’s commitment to their clash in Sydney this year was questionable at best.

Not only does the match-up against Zverev look favourable for Mayer, but against lefties in general on clay Mayer has been really strong lately, winning 11 of his last 13 going back to the summer of 2014.

You’d expect Mayer’s service hold/break stats to be superior to those of Zverev – and they are (105.3 to 97.0 in the last 12 months on clay at main level) – but also Zverev has a poor record in Barcelona.

Zverev managed to lose to Dan Evans here a year ago as favourite and in all he’s 0-4 in the main draw of this tournament, so I’m struggling to find too many positives for the German here.

He did show a little bit more of his old form in Monte-Carlo, but if Mayer is fit it’s unlikely to be enough, and 2-0 to Mayer or -2.5 games on Mayer look the bets here.

Mikhail Kukushkin vs Marcel Granollers

Given the trend towards quick matches in Barcelona that I mentioned earlier it has to be worth an interest in under 22.5 games in the clash between Granollers and Kukushkin.

Remarkably, 14 of the last 16 matches played by Granollers at his home tournament in Barcelona have ended in fewer than 22.5 games, and he’s playing an opponent today that also has a very strong trend for quick matches on clay.

Twelve of Kukushkin’s last 15 main level clay matches have ended in 22 games or fewer and 17 of his last 22 going back to 2014.

Indeed, nine of Granollers’ last 10 matches this season at all levels have ended in fewer than 22.5 games and the one exception finished in 23 games, so neither of these two likes to hang around.

Both of their career clashes also ended in straight sets, but they were many years ago, so perhaps not too relevant, but one would think that Granollers would be the more motivated of the two here.

Born and bred in Barcelona it took Granollers a long time to relax enough to play here, with just three wins from his first 12 matches at this tournament, but with his wild card this week and a break from his usual (these days) Challenger circuit duty he should be up for this one.

It’ll probably end in a final set tie break now that I’ve said all that, but under 22.5 games at 1.78 is the bet here.

Elsewhere, Tommy Robredo looks a shadow of his old self these days, which, along with his poor career record against huge servers, explains his price against Ivo Karlovic.

Benoit Paire has a pretty decent record in Barcelona, but from the sounds of his interview last week he’s pretty despondent at the moment and he’s even less of a tempting betting proposition than normal.

“I want to be good, to be happy every day and for now it's not the case, with my back and lots of things outside,” he’s quoted as saying. “Am I going to stop until Roland? Until Wimbledon? There are other things than tennis in life.”

If he’s in that much of a funk it may be worth chancing Nicolas Jarry for a straight sets win, but I’d rather just avoid the whole match to be honest.

Malek Jaziri doesn’t have much of a record on clay, but he’s so utterly random that it’s hard to get involved in unless there’s a clear reason, and a good example of his form is the fact that he beat Alexander Zverev (and Hyeon Chung) to make the quarters here in 2016.

So far this year he’s already lost four times to players ranked from 152 to 244 and beaten Grigor Dimitrov on a hard courts, so a match involving him and Tennys Sandgren, who’s only played three career main level matches on European clay doesn’t appeal much.

The one I did consider at a big price is to take on Dusan Lajovic, who was awful last week, as a 1.25 favourite against a motivated wild card in Pedro Martinez.

The latter qualified in Marrakech by beating Ernests Gulbis and Ilya Ivashka before losing 7-5, 7-5 to Joao Sousa, so he may be able to press Lajovic in that one.

The four-match Budapest card looks somewhat low on quality on Monday and given that it’s a new venue I suspect a watching brief may the way to go there.

Best Bets

0.5 points win Mayer -2.5 games to beat Zverev at 1.82
0.5 points win under 22.5 games in Granollers/Kukushkin at 1.78

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