ATP Tennis Betting: Fognini likely to be tested in quick conditions by in-form Gojowczyk

ATP Tennis Betting: Fognini likely to be tested in quick conditions by in-form Gojowczyk

Tournament favourite in Geneva, Fabio Fognini, looks to make the final on Friday against Peter Gojowczyk and Sean Calvert expects the German to put up some stern resistance.

Debrief

Thursday began with a relatively comfortable odds-against success when our over 10.5 games in set one of John Isner’s clash with Cam Norrie went to a tie break, despite Norrie almost making a mess of it from 40-15 up at 4-4.

Peter Gojowczyk provided another winner, with a three-set success over Andreas Seppi in Geneva, but Mikhail Kukushkin failed right at the death against Gilles Simon from *4-3 up in the final set tie break.

There was decent news on the outright front, as our man Steve Johnson won two matches on the day against Lukas Rosol and Guido Pella to move through to the semi finals in Geneva.

Conditions

We’re set for another sunny day in Geneva, where the ever-reliable forecast says there’s zero chance of rain, with plenty of sun and 26C temperatures, so it should be quick again on Friday.

Peter Gojowczyk was banging down the serves at 224kph on Thursday, so there’s plenty of pace in these Geneva conditions on a sunny day.

In Lyon, it’s set to be much the same, with plenty of sun and 28C temperatures forecast.

Open Parc Lyon

After saying yesterday that Dominic Thiem was one of the few big names that has a history of putting a shift in the week ahead of a major the Austrian didn’t appear to fancy it much against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez on Thursday.

It ended up being called for bad light at one set each (two tie breaks) and if Thiem intends to win the title in Lyon this week he’ll have to play two matches on Friday and the final on Saturday (assuming the weather holds).

So, there’s only one semi final to look at on Friday in Nice and that’s a tricky one, with Gilles Simon facing Cam Norrie at (not before) 13:30 UK time.

It’s tricky because I’m not too sure what Gillou has got left in his legs these days and after a typical Simon grind of a match on Thursday that he just about edged against Kukushkin how fit will he be on Friday?

I said on Thursday that Simon’s serve has been his weak point on clay of late and of course he chose that day to hit 11 aces and win 80% of the points on serve, holding it on all bar one occasion.

Simon’s got a pretty good record against lefties on clay over the years, with his solid backhand often coming out on top in long exchanges, but he’s only won one semi final on clay since 2011 (against Matthias Bachinger in Bucharest 2012).

If Simon’s got enough in his legs he’d be likely to grind this out against Norrie, but I’m not at all convinced that he’ll have the energy, while Norrie’s price looks rather short, so I’m happy to pass on this one.

Peter Gojowczyk vs Fabio Fognini

As I've mentioned a few times this week, Gojowczyk is really enjoying it here in Geneva, where he’s able to hit his flat winners due to the lively conditions and he’s banging down the big serves to set up his aggressive game style.

He should get the ideal conditions again on Friday and the layers have made him almost twice as likely to beat Fognini here than they did in Rome only a week ago when the Italian won in straight sets.

Fog’s motivation was surely much higher in Rome than it will be here though and the mercurial Fogna, who turned 31 on Thursday, may well decide that he’s had enough match time this week and produce a display somewhat lacking in conviction.

Fognini certainly hasn’t been convincing so far this week, dropping the opening set to Noah Rubin and almost doing it again on Thursday against Tennys Sandgren and he’s played three tie breaks already in only two matches.

Betting on Fognini is rarely a straightforward task at the best of times, let alone when his motivation is questionable, although only once in his career has he won two main level titles in the same season, so there’s a good chance to equal that feat in Geneva, having already won Sao Paulo in 2018.

His record in main level semi finals is good, with 11 wins in his last 16 attempts on clay, but he doesn’t like quick conditions, and I feel that unless Fognini brings his best level to the court Gojowczyk will have his moments in these conditions.

Scheduled for 13:00 local time, Fognini moaned about the heat when he took on Nadal in Rome at a similar time of day, and it wouldn’t come as a huge shock to see him decide he doesn’t fancy it.

I expect he’ll probably get drawn into the battle though and the 3-1 about Fognini winning this in three is the wager that appeals.

The Italian certainly created enough break point chances (eight in two sets) against Gojowczyk in Rome and while he may find the German harder to break when he’s sending down 224kph serves as he is in Geneva it’ll probably be enough to see him win this one.

Seppi was able to carve out 10 break chances against Gojowczyk on Thursday, but he only took two, and while it might not be pretty from Fabio he should be winning this one.

The second semi final is the one that interests us as outright backers of Steve Johnson this week and the way that Marton Fucsovics has been going about his business has been impressive, so he’s a live threat to us on Friday.

I mentioned in Thursday’s preview how impressive Stan Wawrinka had been against Jared Donaldson, but we saw the other side of the Wawrinka game against Fucsovics, with errors leaking from the backhand side that was so impressive versus Donaldson.

Not a lot went right for Wawrinka, while Fucsovics was able to use the conditions to his advantage, hitting powerfully and accurately, while saving seven of the eight break points he faced.

Wawrinka went away all too easily in set two after failing to convert any of his six break point chances and the other factor that has to concern us about Johnson today is one of fatigue.

Our man played five sets on Thursday, beating Lukas Rosol in three, then Guido Pella in two and he also has the doubles on Friday after his singles, so his energy levels must come under question.

Fucsovics may also be a tad nervy here in his maiden tour level semi final (Johnson is 4-7 in main level semis) and if I was having a bet in this one I’d be tempted by the odds against about a tie break.

Both men have held serve a lot this week, with Johnson holding 91.4% of the time and Fucsovics 88.9%, while the tournament has had 10 tie break matches already, with surely more to come if it stays this warm, sunny and quick.

Until we know what’s happened in the other semi final I won’t be hedging my Johnson outright, but I’m sure others will perhaps trade a bit out at this stage.

Best Bet

0.5 points win Fognini to beat Gojowczyk 2-1 at 4.0

Do you want to be informed about bookmakers' latest promotions? Click  and subscribe!