ATP Tennis Betting: Good draw can see Anderson go deep at Queen's Club again

ATP Tennis Betting: Good draw can see Anderson go deep at Queen's Club again

Debrief

It was a disappointing start to the grass swing, both on the outright and daily betting front, with barely an underdog winner in sight and weak showings from Philipp Kohlschreiber and Daniil Medvedev in Stuttgart and Rosmalen.

All told it was a week for favourite backers, with top seed Roger Federer winning the Mercedes Cup and number two seed and tournament favourite Richard Gasquet taking the honours in Rosmalen.

Conditions

It was quite quick in Stuttgart last week, but the CPI that I saw there was only 35.1, which is medium and certainly not fast, and I’d imagine that it’ll be at least that pace, if not quicker, at Queen’s Club this week.

It’s usually a slick, pacy, low bouncing surface at Queen’s Club that’s faster than Wimbledon and a good test for the baseliners against the big servers.

Over in Halle it’s similarly quick and low bouncing, but due to how the stadium is set up with the retractable roof, parts of the Centre Court tend to stay soft and a little greasy at the start of the week.

Quite a few players have taken a tumble or two here over the years and it can be awkward, with one baseline area being softer and more slippery than the other usually.

Draw and form – Fever Tree Open

Andy Murray makes his return to competitive tennis action this week, having not played for almost a year due to injury and hip surgery in January, but realistically the Scot has little to no chance of landing a sixth Queen’s Club title this year.

It’s a little surprising that he’s playing here after his open set of practice against Cam Norrie went 6-3 to Norrie and I’d imagine it’ll be a few months before Murray finds a decent level.

Nick Kyrgios won’t get a better chance than this to get a win over the Scot, as they face off in round one in the top half of the draw.

Marin Cilic is our number one seed this week and he has a poor record lately as top seed in tournaments, with no final made in his last eight events as number one seed.

The Croat should like his quarter of the draw though, with Fernando Verdasco first up (Cilic won six of last seven meetings) and struggling duo Stan Wawrinka and Gilles Muller other possible opponents, as well as Sam Querrey (5-0 Cilic head-to-head and 4-0 on grass).

Muller hasn’t looked the same player since elbow tendonitis last season, while Wawrinka’s fitness these days is questionable at best and he was never at his best on grass when he was fit and healthy, so those two are overlooked, as is Denis Shapovalov, who’s surely too inexperienced on this surface at the moment.

The value perhaps lies with Querrey, whose 0-5 record against Cilic is harsh, as all of them have been tight, with two final set losses at Wimbledon (one 17-15), a final set loss at Queen’s and a two tie breaks defeat in Washington DC among the losses.

The 20-1 on Querrey, who’s 18-9 at Queen’s Club (won it back in 2010) is tempting, but his record against Kyrgios and Raonic isn’t brilliant and he’s have to beat Cilic before he even gets to that stage.

The adjacent quarter sees David Goffin, Feli Lopez, Kyrgios, and Milos Raonic as the main contenders, with Brit duo Murray and Kyle Edmund overlooked, Murray for obvious reasons, and Edmund due to his poor grass form so far in his career.

Lopez is defending champion here at Queen’s Club and loves the conditions, having also made the final (losing in a final set breaker to Grigor Dimitrov) in 2014, but he’s been easily beaten by round one opponent Goffin in their four career clashes so far.

The Spaniard is yet to even win a set against Goffin, but they haven’t met on grass yet and Goffin missed the grass swing last year after injuring himself falling over the tarpaulin covers at the French Open, so he hasn’t played on grass for two years.

That will probably be enough for Lopez to take advantage and grab a first win over Goffin, with Lopez having played Stuttgart last week, but the veteran leftie would then have to face probably Raonic and Kyrgios, so Lopez has a tough draw.

What concerns me about Raonic is his fitness after multiple injury issues in the last year or so and how will his body stand up to being asked to make back-to-back finals?

So, Kyrgios is perhaps the one to be on, but he’s only just back from injury too and perhaps needs more matches to make him a value bet as short as 7-1.

The bottom half of the draw looks a better place to be finding a potential finalist and the two that appeal to me are former champion Grigor Dimitrov and ex-finalist Kevin Anderson.

I recall backing Anderson each-way at 60-1 in that 2015 Queen’s Club tournament and that sort of price on the big South African is a thing of the past in this sort of event in 2018, but

Anderson looks to have the best of the draw, with the out of form and grass-averse Jack Sock his seeded opponent in his quarter, but Jeremy Chardy or Daniil Medvedev are more likely opposition for Anderson.

Both are decent on the grass and Chardy has been hot this grass swing so far, winning Surbiton and making the final in Rosmalen, but surely the Frenchman will be jaded from those efforts.

We backed Medvedev last week in Rosmalen and he disappointed, but that doesn’t mean he won’t go well this week, as the Russian has some good grass form and stats to his name.

Anderson should have gone further at the French Open, but produced epic chokes to lose from 1.01 in-play against Diego Schwartzman, and hopefully he’ll get over that quickly.

His draw looks like one where he can play himself into good grass court form before a semi final clash with one of the ‘big three’ from the bottom quarter.

Novak Djokovic hasn’t played Queen’s since 2010 and I’m happy to take him on this week, with the layers making the Serb the tournament favourite.

This Queen’s Club grass might be too slick and quick for him and he’ll do well to beat Dimitrov, Berdych and Anderson on it just to make the final.

Dimitrov often goes well at Queen’s, but with Djokovic and Berdych both capable of beating the Bulgarian the vote goes to Anderson.  

Draw and form – Gerry Weber Open

Roger Federer is looking to make it back-to-back titles in Germany and his 10^th Halle crown this week and he’s in the top half of the draw, where his challengers include Philipp Kohlschreiber, Dominic Thiem and Lucas Pouille, with the likes of Benoit Paire, Steve Johnson and Stefanos Tsitsipas also in that half.

I’m not convinced that any of those will beat Federer now that he’s had a week on grass under his belt, but the bottom half of the draw looks very interesting.

Favourite for this half and number two seed Alexander Zverev is said to have only decided on Sunday to play Halle due to the hamstring injury he picked up at the French Open, so there may be an opportunity for someone in this half of the draw.

And at a huge price I’m happy to have half a point each-way on Peter Gojowczyk, who loves the quick conditions and has beaten Raonic in Halle in the past.

Gojowczyk skipped Stuttgart due to a hip injury that saw him retire (and be fined) at the French Open, but he’s had longer than Zverev to recover and even without the hamstring injury I’d be taking Zverev on after his overly long clay campaign.

As well as Gojowczyk, Karen Khachanov isn’t without a chance based on last year’s form here, but based on past history Kei Nishikori and Richard Gasquet can be overlooked.

Nishikori has either retired or withdrawn here the last three years in a row, while Gasquet hasn’t made back-to-back finals since October 2007 and tends to bow out early the week after a title/final these days due to his questionable fitness.

Flo Mayer won the title in Halle as recently as 2016, but he doesn’t seem to have much left in the tank these days, and is probably only carrying on until the US Open as a sort of farewell tour.

Borna Coric is 2-9 on grass in his career at all levels, but Mischa Zverev is a possibility, as his form looked to be coming back at the French Open (of all places) and he’s been a bit unlucky with some of his grass draws.

Zverev’s faced Federer three times on grass in the last year and as he can’t play the Swiss before the final the opposition looks better for the German, with none of the other seven players in his quarter holding winning head-to-head leads over Zverev.

So, there’s a reasonable chance he could get to the semis and if his brother isn’t fit then maybe it’ll be the older Zverev brother that makes the Halle final this year.

I can definitely see the value in taking on Alexander Zverev and there are plenty of options as to who we go against him with.

Conclusion

Kevin Anderson’s handy-looking draw makes him my bet at Queen’s Club, where hopefully he can make the final again, while in Halle I’m happy to take a chance and oppose Alexander Zverev on fitness and energy levels, with big-priced options Mischa Zverev and Peter Gojowczyk.

Best Bets

1.5 points win Anderson to win Queen’s at 8.0
0.5 points each-way M.Zverev to win Halle at 51.0
0.5 points each-way Gojowczyk to win Halle at 101.0

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