ATP Tennis Betting: Indoor specialist Berankis can cause problems for Tsitsipas in Metz

ATP Tennis Betting: Indoor specialist Berankis can cause problems for Tsitsipas in Metz

There’s round two action from Metz and St. Petersburg on Thursday, as the indoor hard court tennis continues on the ATP World Tour. Sean Calvert is back to find the best value bets.

Debrief

Those who took tie break played at 2-1 or the overs, or indeed the 2-1 to Roberto Bautista Agut in his St. Petersburg clash with Luca Vanni were a tad unfortunate on Wednesday.

Serving at *5-6, 30-30, Vanni hadn’t so much as faced a break point (had two of his own in the opening game of the match) but two points later the set and effectively the match were over as RBA nicked it.

It sums up the kind of season it’s been by and large that I had set one tie break in that match and also in the Gilles Simon vs Jiri Vesely clash, which also went to *5-6, 30-30, and then 5-7.

It wasn’t all bad though, as we watched Martin Klizan blast his way past Fabio Fognini and into the St. Petersburg quarter finals, where he’ll either face another of our outrights, Matteo Berrettini or Denis Shapovalov.

Shortlist

There may be some fatigue creeping in after Davis Cup and a round here and on the shortlist today for that reason go Yannick Maden, Matthias Bachinger, Jan-Lennard Struff, Mikhail Kukushkin and Matteo Berrettini.

As well as that lot, Ricardas Berankis and Marco Cecchinato are also worthy of consideration on a day where a lot of underdogs look like they could have their day.

Moselle Open

The French will be hoping for a good day on Thursday in Metz, with four of their players involved, but how fit are the pair that played Davis Cup?

Benoit Paire is the Frenchman that I’m most tempted to take on, with the moody one saying after his win over Quentin Halys: “There was fatigue and we celebrated this qualification for the [Davis Cup] final. It was difficult to put the machine back on track, so I'm happy to have won this match.”

If he’s not fully fit the solid Yannick Maden could easily make him pay and Paire has lost eight of his last 18 matches at main level when priced up as a 1.30 to 1.50 favourite.

One of those losses came here two years ago when Vincent Millot beat in in straight sets and it would be no great surprise if Paire just wasn’t up to it either physically or mentally on Thursday.

Ricardas Berankis vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Berankis is so much more effective on indoor hard than any other surface that I’m happy to pick him as my most likely underdog to put in a good performance on Thursday.

The Lithuanian’s record indoors is very decent, winning seven of his last 11 at main level and compiling a service hold/break total of 103.1 in the process and he’s claimed some notable scalps (notably beating Milos Raonic twice indoors at this post-US Open part of the season).

His lack of success on other surfaces is in stark contrast to his indoor record and if we look back at his last event indoors he won it for the loss of just one set(at the St Brieuc Challenger) and since (on clay, grass and hard) he lost 10 of his next 11 matches.

He made the final in Moscow last season and the quarters in St. Petersburg and also made the final of the Rennes Challenger, so he’s on a run of 19 wins in his last 25 matches on indoor hard.

So, on that form this is a far from easy opener for Tsitsipas, whose own form on indoor hard so far in his career has been very average indeed, winning only three of his nine matches, with a hold/break total of 91.1.

It’s fair to say in his defence that he’s improved out of sight since his last match indoors, which was when he was ranked 80 in Marseille back in February, but the question remains as to whether he can transfer his outdoor form indoors.

If he can’t he’s in trouble here and with Berankis nicely attuned to these Metz conditions after a three-setter in round one it could be worth backing him to take the opening set at a price of around 2.80 or the straight win at 3.30.

Our outright in Metz, Nikoloz Basilashvili, should be too much for Ugo Humbert in the evening match, while the power of Marton Fucsovics is likely to give him the edge over Radu Albot.

Lucas Pouille has held serve 95.5% of the time in his five career matches in Metz and assuming he’s not too ‘jaded’ after the Davis Cup celebrations that Paire mentioned he should be too good for Matthias Bachinger.

I’m not sure how the Serbian Davis Cup captain felt on Wednesday about Filip Krajinovic, who declared himself unfit for duty at the weekend, yet crushed Corentin Moutet a few days later.

Despite the 6-1, 6-1 scoreline, Krajinovic didn’t serve well and that may be something to do with this shoulder injury, so I wouldn’t fancy backing him to beat Gilles Simon, who’ll surely make the Serb play a lot of balls on Thursday.

St. Petersburg Open

We have two outrights going for us in Russia on Thursday, with Jan-Lennard Struff more than capable of playing the kind of big-serving, fast points/few rallies tennis that Dominic Thiem dislikes.

Struff showed it in round one against Andrey Rublev and with Thiem coming from Davis Cup duty on clay this may be a very tough assignment for the Austrian.

In their three career clashes Struff has won the opening set in two of them and gone on to lose and lost the opening set and gone on to win in the other, but they haven’t met for 18 months and never on indoor hard, which is probably Struff’s best surface.

It’s Struff that has the better hold/break stats indoors of the pair and he has every chance of causing the upset in the (not before) 16:30 UK time clash on Centre Court.

Daniil Medvedev revealed that he’s been suffering from illness in the last week and was struggling all weekend.

“I was sick before the wedding,” he said. “I hardly sat at the wedding. I do not even know how I managed to play three matches in this period, because all the time I was sick. Anyway, now it's getting better.”

He’s played a lot lately and it wouldn’t be a shock if he came up short on Thursday against Mikhail Kukushkin, who played a set and a half against Denis Istomin, who retired after falling and injuring his left ankle.

Istomin came into the Kuku match with a right ankle injury, so presumably he’s in all sorts of trouble at the moment, but it may well be good news for Kuku, who ironically retired against Medvedev in Russia in their only career clash back in 2016.

Medvedev has cost me a few times recently, but he certainly looks short in the betting here at a skinny-looking price of 1.40, and Kuku has a good record as underdog, winning four of his last eight as a 2-1 dog or bigger.

Our other outright, Matteo Berrettini, also looks a decent pick as underdog if you’re not on him outright, with the Italian facing what could well be a fatigued Denis Shapovalov.

The Canadian wasn’t really tested by the limited Adrian Menendez-Maceiras in round one, but Berrettini has much more to his game and serve very well in a tough test against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez.

Berrettini is 14-4 versus lefties in his career, but only two of those were main level matches (1-1 win/loss) and I’m expecting few breaks of serve in this one, with the Italian for me the value pick against Shapovalov, who’s yet to convince on indoor hard.

Another Italian, Marco Cecchinato, has a decent shot as underdog as well, facing Lukas Lacko, who should (how many times have we said that) have been beaten by Ruben Bemelmans in round one.

Yet again Bemelmans found a way to lose from a winning position, this time from *5-4, 30-0 serving for the match.

Lacko’s stats, as I mentioned before the match that didn’t happen against Marcos Baghdatis, are poor on indoor hard and if Cecchinato is up for this match it would be no shock for me if he took down Lacko here, despite a lack of experience on indoor hard.

Damir Dzumhur’s awful start against Lucas Miedler cost us the other day and he admitted he was feeling jittery ahead of that match and that he hasn’t been fit of late (again):

“The first set I started very nervously, really very nervous. But when I feel confident, I can beat anyone. But that is understandable because I have played very few matches recently and even at the US Open I wasn’t fit.”

So, to sum up, if he’s fit and feeling confident he’ll probably win and if he isn’t he probably won’t. I’m glad we’ve cleared that up and to make it even more complex he faces Guido Pella, who may not be fit either.

Pella came off a five setter on clay in Argentina to a three setter on indoor hard in Russia in a matter of days and he had the trainer out during his win over another fatigued soldier in Ilya Ivashka on Wednesday.

I think I’ll pass on that match, which leaves us with Mikhail Youzhny, on 499 career match wins, against Roberto Bautista Agut, who’ll assume the role of pantomime villain on Thursday.

In ‘normal’ circumstances RBA should be too fit and too solid for this almost retired Youzhny, but I think I’ll give that one a wide berth.

So, loads of options for possible value on Thursday and I’ll take Berankis and Kukushkin as my two for the day.

Best Bets

1 point win Berankis to win set one at 2.80
1 point win Kukushkin to beat Medvedev at 2.95

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