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ATP Tennis Betting: Tsitsipas set to be tested in steamy Shenzhen by Herbert


ATP Tennis Betting: Tsitsipas set to be tested in steamy Shenzhen by Herbert

There’s round two action from the Chengdu Open and Shenzhen Open on the ATP World Tour on Wednesday, with nine matches on the schedule for day three. Sean Calvert returns to preview day three in China.

Debrief

It was an awful day for us on Tuesday, with pretty much anything and everything that could go wrong going wrong.

Guido Pella started the rot by blowing two set points in his opener against Sam Querrey, while fellow Chengdu outright Marcos Baghdatis also blew his chances (led *5-4 and had a set point) in a set one tie break.

Then Lukas Lacko did eventually manage to grab the opener against Mackenzie McDonald, but he didn’t win a single game after that, struggling with what looked like a groin injury and ending up quitting after losing 11 straight games.

Prior to all of that, Yibing Wu won the second set (eventually) instead of the first against Felix Auger-Aliassime then was unable to compete in the third after what may have been a recurrence of a recent wrist problem.

Auger-Aliassime also had the physio out in that one and it was a decent display from Wu, but he failed with the two opening break point chances of the match in set one and was made to pay.

Conditions

Rain caused a problem in Shenzhen on Tuesday, but the forecast for Wednesday says there’s zero chance of rain at 15:00 local time when they start, when it’ll be 32C in the shade and with 61% humidity.

It’ll still be 30C and with 75% humidity by 19:00 local time, so another tough day in prospect in Shenzhen.

Chengdu’s forecast is the same as it’s been all week so far: cloudy, humid (between 74% and 82% from 13:00 until 19:00) and 20C temperatures, with the chance of the odd shower.

Neither venue is showing much likelihood of wind speeds over 9kph.

Shortlist

We didn’t exactly get the kind of day in terms of upsets that I’d hoped for on Tuesday and indeed the ‘upset’ of our outright Baghdatis was ironically one of just four all day from 16 matches.

Bemelmans was one that I highlighted, while Gael Monfils was in injured/in clown mode, and Jiri Vesely was the only other favourite to fall on a very disappointing day for value seekers.

With nine matches on the card on Wednesday the ones to consider for me are: Bernard Tomic, Pierre Hugues-Herbert, and Yoshihito Nishioka.

Starting in Chengdu then and number two seed Hyeon Chung gets his campaign started against Felix Auger-Aliassime, who had some on-court treatment for a lower back problem on Tuesday.

Chung has been expensive to follow lately, losing three of his last five main level matches when priced up at sub-1.50 and it could easily have been four of five had Ricardas Berankis not succumbed to the heat in their New York clash.

If we look at Chung’s hold/break stats in his last 10 matches we can see why he’s struggling a bit, chalking up a combined hold/break mark of 97.7, compared to his yearly total of 107.6, so he’s some way off his best level after coming back from another injury.

Adrian Mannarino is another one whose best form has been hard to find lately, but his lefty game should and has proven tough for Malek Jaziri to deal with, the Frenchman winning both prior clashes between them (after losing both opening sets 1-6).

Mannarino should enjoy conditions here and with Jaziri being another player to seek treatment on Tuesday (took some pills) before tanking the second set against Baghdatis.

I find Jaziri one of the hardest players on tour to try and second-guess, as his yearly stats are again poor (88 hold/break total in 16 matches on outdoor hard at main level) this season, but he does have it in him to find a much higher level than that.

In short, both Chung and Mannarino should win, but they can’t be backed at these prices in their current form.

Joao Sousa has had few problems holding serve against Vasek Pospisil in their three career clashes (on indoor hard, outdoor hard and clay) with a 92.8% hold mark versus the Canadian in a 3-0 career series lead.

Sousa doesn’t have the best of records in China though and he wasn’t too convincing against a physically impaired Tim Smyczek on Monday, but this one looks to be priced about right and doesn’t tempt me into backing either man.

The only bet I considered in Chengdu was to take Bernard Tomic as slight favourite against Lloyd Harris, but when you’ve had a dollop of bad luck one day, backing Tomic the next is a recipe for disaster.

In theory Tomic should have too many layers to his game for someone like Harris, but as we know, he doesn’t always bring the right attitude to the court, hence his poor record in his last 10 matches at main level on outdoor hard.

He’s 2-8 and in those 10 matches he’s held serve only 74.7% of the time and broken just 13.1% of the time, so I’m not sure he’s worth the risk.

Harris was given a big helping hand by an injured and/or tanking Monfils and he’s only held serve 68.5% of the time in his four main level matches so far in his career.
 

Pierre-Hugues Herbert vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

If Albert Ramos beats Viktor Troicki and Herbert defeats Tsitsipas that’ll be a great Wednesday for me and that scenario isn’t without a chance of occurring, with Tsitsipas for me worth taking on in one way or another today.

The Greek’s run of 29 wins in 43 matches has seen his shoot up the rankings, but at what cost physically, as Tsitsipas has now lost four of his last five matches and looked weary in Metz last week.

His temper was on a short fuse at times and I just feel that this could be a very similar scenario to the one we’ve seen often lately with Dominic Thiem, who paid in the latter part of the year for his excessive efforts earlier in the season.

If we look the numbers of Tsitsipas’ season on outdoor hard they’re not that impressive, with a hold/break total of 99.4 and if we shorten that period to the last three months (9-4 win/loss) it’s still only a 100.0 hold/break total.

The other thing that might concern me, as well as accumulated fatigue in very hot and humid conditions in Shenzhen is the style of Herbert, with the Greek so far having lost all three of his matches against ‘net rushers’.

Two of those were against Nicolas Mahut and one versus Sergiy Stakhovsky and all were last season, so he’s got a bit to prove against an opponent that likes to shorten the points and come to net.

The quickish conditions in hot weather should allow Herbert to do that and now that the Frenchman looks to be over his thigh problem that kept him out of Davis Cup duty and has a match under his belt in Shenzhen he’s a dangerous opponent on his day.

Given that neither of these men break serve that often (Tsitsipas 16.4% this season and Herbert 17.5%) on outdoor hard the over games looks the bet here.

Herbert’s record of actually winning matches versus top-20 opposition is pretty poor (3-21 on all surfaces), but he’s either taken a set or forced a tie break in five of his last eight against top-20 opponents.

The other one I’m tempted with is to stay with Yoshihito Nishioka against what must be another tired youngster in Denis Shapovalov, whose record against fellow lefties is poor.

Shapovalov has lost his last seven at main level against lefties and he’s yet to defeat a fellow left-hander at main level in straight sets, while he also still seems to be tinkering with that service motion again and he could well be fatigued, too.

My worry about Nishioka, despite his excellent form so far this week, is that he tends to get overpowered more often than not by top players and we’d be hoping that Shapo isn’t on his game if we’re backing Nishioka.

Finally, our two remaining outrights this week both go on Wednesday in Shenzhen and both are favourites to progress, with Borna Coric a 1.37 shot against Cam Norrie and Albert Ramos a 1.53 chance versus Viktor Troicki.

Ramos won both of his two main level clashes with Troicki on hard and grass as a sizeable underdog and he did look decent in his opener against Andreas Seppi, while Troicki’s prospects lie mainly in how his back is at the moment.

The fact that he entered doubles as well as singles this week (first time since May at a regular tour event) is a positive sign for him, but he didn’t have to test it in round one when Guillermo Garcia-Lopez retired.

I’m hopeful of a Ramos win there, while Coric should be too much in these quickish conditions for Norrie, who prefers it slower and higher bouncing to produce his best stuff

Best Bet

1 point win over 22.5 games in Herbert/Tsitsipas at 1.81


 


 

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Sean Calvert
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