ATP Tennis Betting: Copil and Herbert provide outright value indoors in week 41

ATP Tennis Betting: Copil and Herbert provide outright value indoors in week 41

The players head back to Europe in week 41 of the 2018 ATP World Tour, with three events on indoor hard in Stockholm, Antwerp and Moscow, and after two successful big-priced wagers in the last two weeks Sean Calvert is back for more.

Debrief

In Shanghai last week our plan for Borna Coric to progress to the latter stages worked out very nicely when the young Croat advanced to the final. There wasn’t a lot he could do in the final against Djokovic, but there were big prices around on Coric outright, so each-way backers will have enjoyed a good pay out at least.

Conditions and trends

Stockholm is one of the quicker indoor surfaces, as they changed it to a Greenset surface last year in an attempt to match the conditions in Shanghai and the players were generally of the view that it’s now faster.

Juan Martin Del Potro and Grigor Dimitrov made the final here in 2017, but Fabio Fognini and Fernando Verdasco were semi finalists, so there’s something in this surface for players of different styles. Word for 2018 is that it’s not quite as fast as it was in 2017.

Moscow was changed recently as well and while it’s not as horribly slow as it used to be when they played on a RuKort surface it’s certainly not fast on TP Surface Competition courts. It’s probably more of a medium paced court now.

Players that have did well here in recent years included Damir Dzumhur, Pablo Carreno Busta, Fabio Fognini and Thomaz Bellucci, but it’s faster than that now.

Antwerp is also played on a Greenset surface, but it’s one of the slower ones and they use Head ATP balls at this event.

Diego Schwartzman’s appearance in the Antwerp final in the only two years so far that it’s been on the tour is a clue to the lack of pace in this indoor court.

Stockholm Open

I’m happy to take on new dad John Isner and his Davis Cup team-mate Jack Sock in the top half of the draw here, while Fabio Fognini and Stefanos Tsitsipas hardly look unbeatable in the bottom half.

A trip to Stockholm less than a month after becoming a father doesn’t sound that appealing to me if you’re Isner, who’s rarely the best of travellers anyway, but at least this season he has the possible goal of the World Tour Finals to play for.

I’m not convinced it’ll be enough for him to be firing on all cylinders though and in any case Isner’s stats on indoor hard aren’t good enough (101.9 hold/break in his last 10 matches) to make me fancy him at a shortish price.

Sock’s form has been so lamentable this season that he’s easily taken on and while his record here is decent he didn’t appreciate the quicker surface in Stockholm last year.

Lucas Pouille is the obvious one to take that pair on with, but he’s been known to struggle against the more powerful players on the quicker indoor surfaces and he was beaten on one a year ago by the man I’ll chance in this section: Marius Copil.

The Romanian has amassed a very decent hold/break total of 105.2 in his last 10 matches at main level on indoor hard and he beat Pouille in Metz on a pacy indoor surface 12 months ago.

Copil was unlucky here last year, losing in a final set breaker (having had match points) to Jan-Lennard Struff, and he should be suited by these conditions.

Denis Shapovalov looks to have a decent draw in Sock’s quarter against the Ymer brothers and not a lot else, but the real wild card here is qualifier Ernests Gulbis.

Shapovalov has a decent chance, but 6-1 is a tad short about a player who’s yet to win a set in any of his main level semi finals so far, and at a bigger price the wager has to be to risk Gulbis, whose record against lefties, such as Shapovalov is pretty good.

The unpredictable Latvian has had knee problems since showing some of his best form at Wimbledon earlier this season, but if he's now fully fit, a price of 28-1 on him in this quarter of the draw looks worth taking. 

In the bottom half I was lining up Peter Gojowczyk for this at a big price, but he’s withdrawn citing chest pain, so that’s one bullet dodged this week.

Fernando Verdasco is now perhaps the main threat to the favourites in his section of the draw, with Stefanos Tsitsipas for having much to prove as yet on indoor hard.

Considering his rapid rise up the rankings, Tsitsipas’ stats are nothing special at all and his hold/break total is just 98.5 in his last 12 months on indoor hard.

Alex De Minaur is very inexperienced on indoor hard and looks short at only 8-1, while Philipp Kohlschreiber has the same hold/break total as Tsitsipas on indoor hard in the last year and it’s probably too quick for Kohli, who hasn’t made a final indoors since 2009.

Verdasco made the semis last year, losing out in a final set tie break to Del Potro, and his 8-4 win/loss mark here (108.1 hold/break total) makes him a contender, while Hyeon Chung is another who’s experience on indoor hard is rather limited and his current form is anything but inspiring.

Taylor Fritz made his only ATP World Tour final on indoor hard in Memphis, but he’s done very little on the surface since, although on current form I wouldn’t rule him out at all.

Fabio Fognini’s attitude is the key to this half of the draw and while it’s always guesswork as to Fognini’s state of mind perhaps the injury to Juan Martin Del Potro that looks sure to keep Delpo out of the Tour Finals brings Fogna into the equation.

It also does with Isner, but it does look a tall order for the Italian unless there are more injuries, although an alternate spot is a possibility for Fognini, who played well in Stockholm last season.

Fognini at around 8-1 doesn’t appeal to me though and I prefer small stakes risks on big hitters Copil and Gulbis here.

Kremlin Cup

Along with Stockholm, this looks the interesting event of the week, with the top half of the draw in particular looking very open and I could make a decent case for most of the players in the top half making the final.

Defending champion Damir Dzumhur may well find Egor Gerasimov a tough round one and the Bosnian isn’t in the kind of form that would suggest retention of his title is likely and I’m leaning towards Adrian Mannarino in that first quarter.

The Frenchman has been in poor form for a while, but he played well here a year ago and his draw to the quarters looks decent, but 16-1 isn’t big enough for me. I’d want at least 25-1 or bigger before backing Mannarino.

The winner of Benoit Paire and Mischa Zverev couldn’t be ruled out and neither could Filip Krajinovic, who needs ranking points badly if he’s not going to suffer a big rankings drop in the coming weeks.

Mikhail Kukushkin has a good record here and now that conditions are quicker the winner of Kuku and Evgeny Donskoy could also go well, but at 33-1 I prefer taking a punt on Pierre-Hugues Herbert.

The Frenchman has been in good form of late, almost winning the title in Shenzhen and at the Ortisei Challenger and he’s performed well indoors, even in slow conditions, notably when he made the Rotterdam semis last season.

He should be motivated for the rest of this campaign by the prospect of a Davis Cup final to come and at twice the price of Kukushkin and Krajinovic and much bigger than 9-1 Martin Klizan he looks the value in the top half.

Round one could be awkward against the hit and miss Alexander Bublik, who made the quarters last year and there are no easy matches in this half of the draw, but I’ll go with the price on this one.

The bottom half is also packed with quality in a good field for Moscow this year, with Nick Kyrgios, Daniil Medvedev and Karen Khachanov the big names, while Andrey Rublev, Ricardas Berankis, Dusan Lajovic and Denis Istomin are all capable of going on a run here.

Mirza Basic has been in awful form at main level, but he’s had a few wins at Challenger level to boost the confidence, while Lukas Rosol has qualified and already beaten Matteo Berrettini, so I wouldn’t count either of those out at big prices either.

I like the idea of backing lucky loser Berankis though at a whopping 125-1, with the Lithuanian a finalist here a year ago and indoor specialist and he’s also beaten the likes of Milos Raonic at this tournament.

He showed again what he can do indoors when he beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in Metz and that price looks too big to me.

Medvedev is the form pick, but too short for me at 4-1 in a half as tough as this and with plenty of tennis in his legs lately, so I’ll just take Herbert in Moscow.

Briefly on the European Open, as this doesn’t appeal that much on a pudding of a surface, and the only one I thought about backing here was Jan-Lennard Struff.

The German is in the top half along with Kyle Edmund, Robin Haase, Richard Gasquet, Feli Lopez and Frances Tiafoe and no one player really stands out for to be backed from that group.

Gasquet is the favourite in these conditions for me, but I prefer to back him when he’s a bigger price, as opposed to the 5-1 he is this week and Struff has the ability to cause a bit of an upset in this half, but he’s so hard to win with that 16-1 isn’t big enough.

The bottom half contains struggling Frenchmen Gael Monfils and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, neither of whom seem to be fully fit after various injury problems this season, and an out of form Milos Raonic, who’s also had his injury issues.

Diego Schwartzman has made the final here two years running, but if he faces a fit Tsonga or Raonic I wouldn’t fancy him to make it a hat-trick, but Gilles Simon likes a Greenset court and may have a part to play.

No bet here for me though, as nothing appeals enough in Antwerp.

Best Bets

0.5 points each-way Gulbis in Stockholm at 29.0
0.5 points each-way Copil in Stockholm at 34.0
0.5 points each-way Herbert in Moscow at 34.0
0.5 points each-way Berankis in Moscow at 126.0

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