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Bundesliga: Beware the Bayern Backlash!


Bundesliga: Beware the Bayern Backlash!

Bayern Munich vs Mainz 05

This is not the time to be rocking up at the Allianz Arena to take on FC Bayern, but it’s the turn of FSV Mainz this weekend…and they’d better be prepared.

Of course, Sandro Schwarz is a good coach and has talented players, but the Mainz boss knows that not only are his opponents in formidable Bundesliga form, they are also pretty angry! Last night, Niko Kovac’s team crashed out of the Champions League to Liverpool, and that after they had held the Premier League outfit to a draw on Merseyside.

I expect the Bavarians to show no mercy when Mainz come to town. The visitors aren’t in good form at the moment, so I fully expect the reigning champions to make it a sixth Bundesliga win on the trot on Sunday.

Talking Points

Can anyone stop the Bayern Bandwagon?

With nine games to go, it’s beginning to look a little ominous for those (millions) hoping that BVB can wrestle the title off the champions. The Bundesliga 2019 betting odds have swung firmly in favour of FC Bayern over the past few weeks. Our latest odds have the Bavarians down to 1.28 with long-time leaders BVB out at 3.40.

Bayern’s chances of retaining the title were hanging by a thread not long ago, but a run of 12 wins in 13 games, while Dortmund stuttered, has shifted the momentum firmly in Kovac’s team’s direction. They have closed the nine-point gap but the teams are still level on points, and the Bayern coach is determined to take a grip on top spot, saying: “We are now where we wanted to be. We want to stay there, too.”

Bayern hammered Wolfsburg last week by six goals to nil, and Robert Lewandowski scored twice, becoming the German league’s all-time top scoring foreign player in the process. He’s top of the Bundesliga scoring charts again and looks likely to retain his crown; one ray of hope for the visitors is that he has only scored twice in the last six games against Mainz.

Prior to thrashing Wolfsburg, Bayern beat Champions League-chasing Borussia Monchengladbach, 1-5, on their own patch, so what price is Kovac’s team smashing Mainz for seven?!

It’s all about winning a seventh consecutive title now, and Bayern fans will be checking the Bundesliga 2019 updates on Saturday evening to see if tenth-placed Hertha Berlin can do a favour when they host Borussia Dortmund.

Is this a free hit for Mainz?

No coach will ever admit it, but if ever there was a game where not much is expected then this is surely it.

Schwarz has a young team with an average age of just over 24. They are 11 points clear of the drop and shouldn’t get dragged into a relegation fight. But if they leave the Allianz Arena empty-handed, then that will be six defeats in seven and their momentum will all but have stopped. Realistically, they only need another three or four points to survive so I believe this game is a free hit.

Die Nullfunfer’s defence will be severely tested, and captain Stefan Bell, alongside 23-year-old Moussa Niakhate, has his work cut out. The skipper is an uncompromising figure, picking up seven yellow cards so far this season.

FSV Mainz can be dangerous on the break: in the Bundesliga statistics, they sit fifth in the list of sprints and fourth in the number of crosses from open play. Wing-back

Daniel Brosinski has produced five assists, and Jean-Phillipe Mateta has been the chief beneficiary with seven goals. The 21-year-old striker was on the bench in the 0-1 defeat to Monchengladbach last week and will hope for a start against the league’s best on Sunday.

Bayern keeper Manuel Neuer has kept just two clean sheets in the last eight games, so I won’t rule out an away goal.

History

Mainz have hovered around mid-table since promotion in 2009 and qualified for the Europa League in 2016, but another season in the top flight isn’t a bad return.

In the 30 games played since 2005, FC Bayern have won 22 while Mainz won five and there have been just three draws. The champions have won five of the last six meetings, the other being a 2-2 draw in Munich back in 2017.

Recent form isn’t good for Mainz with three consecutive away losses while Bayern have won eight from 12 at home.

Betting Tip

Bayern Munich First Half -1.00 @ 1.89

At SBOBET odds of 1.13 a home win, 7.20 for a draw and 21.00 for a Mainz win, I can’t see anything other than a convincing Bayern victory. I think they will be determined to get Wednesday’s loss to Liverpool out of the way, and so there should be value in backing a fast start.

Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.

 



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