ATP Tennis Betting: Cuevas the value to continue his fine form on the clay of Lyon

ATP Tennis Betting: Cuevas the value to continue his fine form on the clay of Lyon

In the last week before the French Open the clay court action continues on the ATP Tour in Geneva and Nice and Sean Calvert has a big-priced fancy or two in France.

Debrief

Novak Djokovic is at the time of writing into the final of Rome, but with his chances somewhat diminished by a tough schedule that saw him finish late two nights in a row in final set deciders.

Conditions and trends

After a couple of weeks of M1000 events, where the winners were always likely to come from a very small number of elite players we’re back to the much more open and therefore more appealing ATP250s in week 21.

The Geneva Open is played at an altitude of around 375m at the Parc des Eaux-Vives using the same Babolat balls as will be used at the French Open next week.

Last year it was warm and quick and that led to two unexpected finalists in 28-1 Marton Fucsovics and 20-1 Peter Gojowczyk and fast surface loving Mischa Zverev made the final here in 2017.

This year the forecast is predicting rain for much of the week, so it probably won’t be as quick as last year and so far in its four years on tour only Zverev has made it past round two as a qualifier.

Over at the Open Parc Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes they also play on outdoor clay with Babolat balls and the ever-reliable Benoit Paire suggested a couple of years ago that it’s quicker here than in Rome, but I’d suggest it mainly depends on the weather.

It’s expected to be rainy in Lyon, too, for the start and the end of the week, with just cloud in-between, so it probably won’t play quick here this week either.

The tournament moved to Lyon (formerly Nice) in 2017 and the last three winners have been Dominic Thiem (twice) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, while qualifiers have struggled and top seeds performed well.  

Open Parc Auvergne-Rhone-Alpes Lyon

The qualifying draw in Lyon looks to hold fewer possibilities than in Geneva and this looks another pre-major tournament that’s wide open, with the top half particularly full of options.

Top seed (for the first time in his career) Nikoloz Basilashvili has been in poor form this season and after a glimmer of a return to form in Rome he then managed only one game against Rafael Nadal, so his confidence can’t be too high.

It’s hard to see either Bernard Tomic or Mikhail Kukushkin figuring (although Kuku almost made the semis here a year ago) and the winner of a tough round one clash between 2017 champ Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and 2018 semi finalist Dusan Lajovic looks to have a solid chance.

Tsonga, as has often been the case in recent years, has been struggling with injury lately and probably won’t go all the way based on what we’ve seen of him on clay so far this swing.

Lajovic has better long-term prospects in this tournament based on his best form, but his awful record against big servers (4-28 versus the ones on my list and 2-9 on clay) puts me off him.

The second quarter has a few in with chances, such as Felix Auger-Aliassime, Pablo Andujar, Martin Klizan, and French duo Jeremy Chardy and Pierre-Hugues Herbert.

Andujar hasn’t played since an exhausting run of 13 straight wins on the clay in March and early April, so we’re guessing a bit as to his fitness, but he certainly can’t be ruled out on his 2019 clay form.

I’d expect him, if he’s fit, to beat John Millman in these conditions, while Steve Johnson needs it to be very quick to stand any sort of a chance one would have thought, but the others ion this section are all capable on their top form.

Herbert has been improving on the clay, but the damp conditions are likely to count against him, while Chardy is, for me, too hard to win with and hasn’t made a final on clay since 2009.

Klizan is the one with possibilities here, in conditions that (if the forecast is correct) he’s gone well in before, winning titles in Germany in wet weather.

Auger-Aliassime has clear claims on his Rio form, but his price is a bit short for my liking here.

In the bottom half, Pablo Cuevas comes here in top form, having made back-to-back finals (Estoril and the Aix En Provence Challenger) and he looks to have a fine chance again here.

I’d fancy the Uruguayan to have too much in the way of clay smarts for Hubert Hurkacz in these conditions, with the Pole probably needing it a bit quicker than this.

The possible problem for Cuevas is his poor record against Benoit Paire, who he may well meet in round two, but who knows with Paire, who was last quoted as saying: “I have a lot of physical problems. I have back pain again and I have trouble training. Besides that, my elbow also hurts from Barcelona. For a while, I have been taking a lot of anti-inflammatories.”

He also added: “There are many things to say but I think I have to have a little rest,” so he doesn’t sound like he’ll be busting a gut this week.

Indeed, Paire has a poor record the week before majors and has never made a final in one so far, so with Cuevas in excellent form and having landed a title in France in similar conditions to here the other week he looks the one in this half.

Cam Norrie made the semis here a year ago, but is too hit and miss for my liking on clay, although it wouldn’t be a major surprise if he took down Ugo Humbert and Denis Shapovalov.

Shapo has only really seemed to get to grips with clay at altitude in Rome and is hard to fancy here, but Roberto Bautista Agut, Richard Gasquet and even Taylor Fritz are possible contenders.

RBA’s only clay final since 2014 came in likely conditions at altitude in the summer in Gstaad and I’m not keen on backing him on what will probably be slow clay.

Geneva Open

The scandalous treatment of young Swiss player Johan Nikles, who won the pre-qualifying event, but was then told he wouldn’t be allowed to play qualies because they gave his place to Grigor Dimitrov instead, has cast a shadow over this tournament.

The fact that the tournament director played this down by pointing out that Nikles received a wild card into the doubles draw and free hospitality would be hilarious if it weren’t so sad and it would be some justice if Dimitrov got knocked out in the last round of qualies on Sunday.

If he doesn’t (he’s playing Thomas Fabbiano) then Dimitrov, Damir Dzumhur and probably Lorenzo Sonego will all go into the main draw, which makes it a tough one to assess until the qualifiers have been placed.

Only one can go into the top half, where Alexander Zverev was allowed to play as a late “substitution” for Fabio Fognini, who, along with Daniil Medvedev withdrew.

Zverev is the obvious market leader, but he couldn’t be backed with any confidence at a price like 2.50, given his poor recent form, clear lack of belief at the moment and with a major to follow a couple of days after the final here.

I’m sure we all remember Zverev hitting the wall physically in Paris last year and he didn’t even play the week before the French Open last year.

Alternatives to Zverev in the top half include both of last year’s finalists, Peter Gojowczyk and Marton Fucsovics and a posse of clay courters, such as Joao Sousa, Hugo Dellien, Federico Delbonis, Leo Mayer and Albert Ramos.

I suspect the much cooler and probably damper conditions won’t help Gojowczyk, but Fucsovics played well in Munich in similar circumstances a few weeks ago.

Delbonis is very hit and miss these days, but if he has a good week I wouldn’t count him out at 50-1, however he could face a tough round one, depending on who he gets from qualies.

It’s worth waiting to see who comes out of qualies before betting here, but in the bottom half it’s worth a look at Nicolas Jarry at 23-1 in the quarter that features his Davis Cup team-mate Cristian Garin as the high seed.

Jarry has a good early draw against, most likely, two clay-averse Aussies in Matt Ebden and Jordan Thompson as his first two matches and that could be a handy way into the tournament for Jarry, who’s struggled this season.

The altitude here should help him and he does have the power to hit through damp courts as well – and he’s beaten the likes of Zverev and Dimitrov this year already, despite making only one quarter final (in Barcelona, where he beat the two big names in damp conditions) since last summer.

He’s yet to beat Garin, but they last clashed years ago and never at main level, while Garin could face a tough qualifier in round one, too.

High seed in the bottom half Stan Wawrinka continues to be a puzzle, looking very good early on in Madrid, but he capitulated meekly against Nadal there and against David Goffin in Rome.

He’s really lacked consistency since his injury lay off and that section of the draw could be a good one for a qualifier, with Radu Albot not up to much on clay, while Mischa Zverev continues to be really poor and Feli Lopez nears retirement.

Juan Ignacio Londero might be the best of that section, but I’d want a bigger price than 30-1 on him, really.

Conclusion

I’ll wait until after qualies have finished in Geneva before making final picks there, but a small interest on Jarry at 23-1 looks in order for now, while the clear value for me in Lyon lies with Cuevas, and 40-1 on Klizan looks big as well.

Best Bets

1 point each-way Cuevas to win Lyon at 26.0
0.5 points win Klizan to win Lyon at 41.0
0.5 points win Jarry to win Geneva at 24.0 

Do you want to be informed about bookmakers' latest promotions? Click  and subscribe!