UFC Predictions: UFC 300

UFC Predictions: UFC 300

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After all the rumors, speculation and build up, UFC 300 is finally here.

The card is stacked from the early prelims all the way to the main event where Alex Pereira defends his lightweight title against the man who never lost the belt, Jamahal Hill.

Hill vacated the title in July last year after rupturing his Achilles tendon less than six months after winning it from Pereria’s mentor in MMA, Glover Teixeira.

The co-main event sees an all-Chinese women’s strawweight title clash with champion Zhang Weili facing Yan Xiaonan.

Event: UFC 300

Date: April 14, 2024

Venue: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

ALEX PEREIRA VS. JAMAHAL HILL: TALE OF THE TAPE

ANALYZING THE ALEX PEREIRA VS. JAMAHAL HILL ODDS

Alex Pereira is the -125* favorite to pick up the victory, while Jamahal Hill is the underdog at +109*.

ALEX PEREIRA VS. JAMAHAL HILL: WHERE IS THE VALUE?

Alex Pereira is already a two-weight UFC champion after just seven fights in the organization. 

After dethroning long-time kickboxing rival Israel Adesanya at middleweight in late 2022, the Brazilian lost the rematch five months later before moving up to light heavyweight.

A title eliminator victory against Jan Błachowicz in July last year left him in prime position to fight for the vacant title in November. 

The 36-year-old faced another man who vacated the belt through injury in Jiří Procházka, knocking out the former champ in the second round at Madison Square Garden. 

This unbelievable seven-fight run in the UFC with limited MMA experience shows how formidable of an opponent Pereira is. He hits like a truck and his wider game is evolving fight by fight under the guidance of recently retired UFC veteran Glover Teixeira.

Hill is also a fighter who has enjoyed a quick rise to the top. Coming off the Contender Series in 2019, the now 32-year-old fought and won the light heavyweight title in his eighth UFC fight, winning a decision over the aforementioned Teixeira. 

On his run to the belt, Hill had stopped his last three opponents - Thiago Santos, Johnny Walker and Jimmy Crute.

Unsurprisingly, neither man has a submission win on their record and the value in this fight is backing the knockout. These two fighters have serious knockout power with each having six UFC wins, both claiming four KO/TKO’s.

It feels like Pereira has the momentum again and with his mighty power we'll side with him to avenge his mentor Teixeira inside the distance and keep hold of his UFC lightweight title.

ZHANG WEILI VS. YAN XIAONAN: TALE OF THE TAPE

ANALYZING THE ZHANG WEILI VS. YAN XIAONAN ODDS

Zhang Weili enters the fight as the -376* betting favorite, with Yan Xiaonan available at odds of +295*.

ZHANG WEILI VS. YAN XIAONAN: WHERE IS THE VALUE?

A heavy favorite coming into this one, Zhang Weili has made a name for herself as one of the standout female fighters of this current generation. 

After dethroning Jessica Andrade in the first round of their strawweight title clash in 2019 in just her fourth UFC fight, Zhang has been involved in some of the most eye-catching female fights of the last few years. 

The Chinese star suffered back-to-back defeats to Rose Namajunas in 2021 but has since put a three-fight win streak together, in which she has both won back and defended her title.

Not only does Zhang have power in her hands, but her ground game has gotten considerably better. The 34-year-old has shown confidence in her wrestling and has been able to mix up her attacks to great success, notably last time out in a dominant decision win over Amanda Lemos. 

Yan Xiaonan is primarily a kickboxer who has amassed a 8-2 record in the UFC. Seven of her wins have come via decision, while her only knockout came last time out when she stopped Andrade in the first round to earn her shot at the title.

Xiaonan has great lateral movement and can fight well from the outside. With her style, the best chance she has of winning is likely to try using her footwork to avoid both Zhang’s takedown attempts and getting drawn into a war.

However, it's hard to see her doing this over five rounds.  There isn’t much value in backing a win for Zhang, and siding with her to add a third submission win to her UFC resume represents the most value. Alternatively, Zhang grinding out another five-round decision could be the next best option.

JUSTIN GAETHJE VS. MAX HOLLOWAY ODDS

Justin Gaethje defends his BMF title against Max Holloway in what could be the highlight of UFC 300.

Gaethje knocked out Dustin Poirier last year to win the belt in a career stacked with kill or be killed performances which have seen him become the most exciting fighter on the roster.

Former featherweight champion Holloway makes his second attempt at moving to lightweight after coming up short in a decision against Poirier when they fought for the interim lightweight championship in 2019. This time, however, Holloway has taken extra time to build out the extra weight.

The value here could be in Holloway. The 32-year-old has a great chin and is a fantastic boxer. Admittedly he would have to survive Gaethje’s best to get his arm raised. This could be a tall order, but if he has achieved the weight in the right way then he is more than capable of winning this fight.

"The Highlight" is 8-4 in the UFC so this one is far from a foregone conclusion that the odds might suggest.

Gaethje is the -220 favorite, while Holloway is the underdog at +185.

CHARLES OLIVEIRA VS. ARMAN TSARUKYAN ODDS

A potential title eliminator at 155lbs sees Charles Oliveira face Arman Tsarukyan.

Tsarukyan looked every inch the title contender when he knocked out Beneil Dariush in December.

Meanwhile, Oliveira was forced to pull out of a rematch with champion Islam Makhachev in October through injury, having bounced back from losing his title to the Russian by also knocking out Dariush in the first round last June.

Although Tsarukyan looks like the real deal and is the big favorite, the value here could be in Oliveira, given his extensive resume and ability to win fights from anywhere.

Tsarukyan is the -250 favorite, while Oliveira is the underdog at +208.

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