Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia Betting Preview

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez returns to the ring for his first fight of 2024 on Cinco de Mayo weekend with a tough matchup against the unbeaten Jaime Munguia in an undisputed super middleweight title fight.

Canelo is defending his IBF, WBC, WBA and WBO titles against the 43-0 Munguia in the first all-Mexican world title fight above 160 pounds.

Jermall Charlo and Edgar Berlanga had been in the running for a shot at Canelo, while Terence Crawford and David Benavidez were also keen to face the 33-year-old, but instead it is Munguia who has been handed the chance to face off against boxing’s biggest star in a huge fight in Las Vegas on May 4.

Munguia is a worthy opponent for the super middleweight king and has earned this opportunity after stopping John Ryder in his last bout in January, while Canelo was taken the full distance by the Englishman when they met in May last year.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia: Tale of the Tape

Analyzing the Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia odds

Canelo is the clear favorite to win at -574*, while Munguia is a +400* underdog.

An early finish isn’t expected as under 10.5 rounds in this 12-round contest is +220*, with over 10.5 rounds priced at -275*.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia: Where is the value?

The value here is clearly in backing Munguia to win and there are a few reasons to think the Tijuana native could pull off an upset on Cinco de Mayo weekend.

Canelo was taken the full distance by John Ryder last year, albeit handing ‘The Gorilla’ a comprehensive beating and a knockdown in the fifth, but Munguia was able to beat the same opponent inside the distance when they met in January - recording a TKO win in the ninth.

Munguia is also unbeaten after 43 fights, winning 34 of those inside of the distance, but he doesn’t have too many big names on his record.

In contrast, Canelo has been fighting at an elite level for well over a decade now and comes into this bout on the back of three impressive wins, following a points loss to Dmitry Bivol when attempting to claim another title at light heavyweight.

Canelo does have his critics and there is the suggestion that he is on the decline, but it is worth remembering that he has never been stopped - despite coming up against the likes of Bivol, Gennady Golovkin and Sergey Kovalev - and he is exceptional defensively.

Munguia is a worthy opponent and has earned this chance after a career-best display against Ryder, but Canelo is probably too slick and too experienced to be drawn into any serious danger here. The value may well be in a Munguia victory but the most likely outcome is a win for Canelo, potentially via a stoppage in the middle rounds as Munguia is a pressure-fighter whose biggest weakness is his defense.  

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