2024 Stanley Cup Futures Betting Preview

2024 Stanley Cup Futures Betting Preview

There has been a tight race at the top of the NHL standings this season, which is great for parity, but also leaves it wide open as to which teams are going to be legitimate championship contenders. There are six teams with the shortest odds, ranging from +600* to +900*.

While playoff hockey brings upsets and uncertainty, the Stanley Cup winner has often come from the teams that have odds shorter than +1000 to win outright.

At the start of the playoffs, in the past 18 seasons, the Cup winner has had odds shorter than +1000 a dozen times.

There has been one Stanley Cup winner in that span with odds longer than +2000: the 2011-2012 Los Angeles Kings, a team that had a strong statistical profile, if not a great regular season record.

That leaves a lot of teams in the realm of viable contenders for the Stanley Cup this season.

Here are some favorites, value plays, and long shots to consider.

HURRICANES AND PANTHERS ARE STANLEY CUP FAVORITES

The Hurricanes and Panthers are the favorites, in part because the Eastern Conference appears to have an easier path to reach the Stanley Cup Final. Even the lowest playoff qualifiers in the Western Conference have had stronger seasons, with clearly positive goal differentials. They are not sneaking into the playoffs like the New York Islanders and Washington Capitals in the Eastern Conference.

Thus, a team like the Carolina Hurricanes is worthy of consideration. Via Natural Stat Trick, the Hurricanes are tops in the NHL when it comes to score-and-venue-adjusted shot attempt percentage (60.3 percent) and expected goals percentage (57.5 percent), so they have the statistical profile of a championship contender.

They have reached the Conference Finals twice in five seasons under head coach Rod Brind’Amour and a frequent lament has been that they have lacked a game-breaking scorer to help lift them over the top. Their trade deadline acquisition of Jake Guentzel added a winger who has contributed better than a point per game and could be the missing piece.

The ‘Canes also added Evgeny Kuznetsov from Washington and while he has not been overly productive, he excelled in Washington’s run to the Stanley Cup in 2017-2018, scoring 32 points in 24 playoff games. If he could just provide secondary offense for Carolina, that would help.

The Hurricanes head to the playoffs priced at +650* to win the Stanley Cup.

While the Florida Panthers lost to Vegas in the Stanley Cup Final last season, this is the fourth straight season in which the Panthers have been playing like a top contender. While the Hurricanes are tops in shot attempts and expected goals, the Panthers rank second and fifth.

The Panthers have benefitted from a career season for winger Sam Reinhart, who scored 57 goals, and goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has had what is probably his best season since he won his second Vezina Trophy in 2016-2017.  

What could pose a challenge for the Panthers is that their first-round series is against the Tampa Bay Lightning, which will be a compelling rivalry matchup, but also an opponent that is as playoff-tested as any.

The Panthers are priced at +690* to capture the Stanley Cup.

OILERS, AVALANCHE AND STARS ARE TOPS IN WESTERN CONFERENCE

In the Western Conference, it feels like a more daunting task for teams to even reach the Final, thereby making the championship odds longer.

Priced at +725* to win the Cup, the Edmonton Oilers will be making their fifth straight appearance in the playoffs, though they have reached the Conference Finals just once. With Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in their prime years, this is the time for Edmonton to contend for a championship. 

Not only do the Oilers have a strong possession game, ranking third in shot attempt percentage and second in expected goals percentage during five-on-five play, but their power play remains one of the best in the league. Given the personnel available, it is no surprise.

The Oilers are a strong team with a tough road to the championship.

Even as the third-place team in the Central Division, the Colorado Avalanche are considered Cup contenders. Surely, that’s in part due to winning the 2022 Stanley Cup, but it’s also based on having elite talent like Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen on the roster. 

The Avalanche are not quite as dominant when it comes to puck possession, ranking sixth in shot attempt percentage and ninth in expected goals percentage, but those are overall numbers. When wingers Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen are healthy, however, Colorado’s puck possession results tend to improve.

The Avalanche are priced at +750* to capture the championship.

The Dallas Stars have climbed to the top of the Central Division and, like the other top contenders, have strong puck possession numbers, ranking fifth in shot attempts percentage and third in expected goals percentage.

With a strong mix of veteran and young talent, the Stars have been consistently strong throughout the season. Second-year center Wyatt Johnston has stepped up his game and the Stars lineup was boosted by the promotion of rookie winger Logan Stankoven from the American Hockey League.

One area of some concern has been goaltending, as Jake Oettinger had been excellent in previous seasons, but he had some ups and downs during the regular season. Oettinger was outstanding over the final month of the season, though, so if he is back in form, the Stars ought to be considered legit contenders.  

The Stars are priced at +815* to win the Stanley Cup.

RIDE THE LIGHTNING FOR POTENTIAL VALUE

While it has been very rare for a team with odds beyond +2000 to win the Stanley Cup, there are probably a couple of teams worth considering.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have Stanley Cup pedigree, winning in 2020 and 2021 then losing in the Final in 2022. For most of the season, it did not look like the Lightning would be in the mix of contenders this season.

Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has been the backbone of Tampa Bay’s championship runs, had back surgery at the start of the season and it took him quite a while to round into form. Over the past month, he has been playing more in line with his typically strong level of play. 

Given a team with a core of Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, all players that have been part of their championship core, if Vasilevskiy is playing well, the Lightning could make some noise.

They don’t have the same underlying statistical performance of other top contenders and stalwart defenseman Mikhail Sergachev remains out of the lineup as he recovers from a broken leg, so there are reasons that the Lightning are not among the top contenders. 

The first-round matchup against Florida will undoubtedly be a challenge, but with the Lightning priced at +2300* they might offer some value.

ARE PREDATORS A LONG SHOT CUP CONTENDER?

While it is rare for a team that is a true long shot to win the title, it could be worth looking at the Nashville Predators, a wild card team in the Western Conference that have been among the league’s top teams since the All-Star break. The Predators infamously recorded at least one point in 18 straight games after having a planned team outing – to see U2 at The Sphere in Las Vegas – cancelled.

Goaltender Juuse Saros has not been as strong this season as in previous years but is still an above-average starter, one who is at least theoretically capable of making the difference in a playoff series. 

While the Predators have a solid team, the play of their stars – defenseman Roman Josi and left winger Filip Forsberg – gives them reason to have higher hopes. 

The leadership of 2018-2019 Conn Smythe Trophy winner Ryan O’Reilly, who won a Stanley Cup with St. Louis in 2019, is another reason to like the Predators as a lively underdog, even if they have a daunting path to the championship.

The Preds are priced at +4000* to win the Stanley Cup.

 

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