Golf Betting: KLM Open - Kaymer can soar to success in Amsterdam

Golf Betting: KLM Open - Kaymer can soar to success in Amsterdam

Patrick Reed leads the betting but there's plenty of value elsewhere.

THIS week Europe’s best women golfers take on America’s finest in the Solheim Cup and the two captains are hoping that the crowds make plenty of noise. They’ll do well to top the racket at the KLM Open, however. The tournament, one of the oldest on the European Tour, makes its debut at The International in Amsterdam and the course is located between a motorway and the airport. Who’s ready for take-off?

Winner – Martin Kaymer 18/1

With a new course on the rota and a series of favourites whose motivation is tough to get a handle on this is a tricky week. To what extent, for example, is Patrick Reed on a European vacation? And what to make of Sergio Garcia, who has just one top ten since spring, or Joost Luiten, who hasn’t even managed that? Matt Wallace, who missed the cut in Switzerland on his return from a summer break, and the consistent-but-yet-to-win Mike Lorenzo-Vera only add to the enigma.

In truth, my selection, Martin Kaymer, is another riddle, but I have a feeling that he’s nearing the end of the win-less tunnel. It is that drought which will dissuade many because it is now over five years since he completed the Players Championship-U.S. Open double, but his performances are hinting at a renaissance. He’s made six starts this side of the Atlantic in 2019 and every single one of them reaped a top 25. In the summer months that has included top tens in the British Masters and Irish Open, plus a halfway lead in the BMW International Open. A former winner of this title (in 2010), I like his chances of making it two at 18/1.

Each way – Gavin Green 33/1

The Malaysian 25-year-old is enjoying a second full-time campaign on the European Tour and after a solid 84th on the Race to Dubai in 2018, he’s 57th this year and closing on participation in the big-money events at season’s end. He’s achieved that with lots of consistency – he’s collected nine top 30s – and an impressive ability to perform on different types of tracks. He’s excelled in the heat of Asia, the cold of England, on wide-open resort layouts and the tree-lined fairways of Valderrama.

Two trends look good ahead of this week. First of all, he is getting off to quick starts. In fact, in seven of his last eight appearances, he has been top ten after 18 holes. That leads to the second trend. He led after the first round in the Czech Masters. Next time out he was tied sixth at halfway in the Scandinavian Invitational. And last time we saw him he led after 36 holes and was third after 54. Is he set to contend through all 72 holes this week? He’s an attractive 40/1.

Outsider – Matthew Southgate 66/1

Two elements about this course are striking – the numerous water hazards and the large undulating greens. Add to those features the banks which stretch down the fairways, often with wispy knee-high grass, and the visuals call to mind Le Golf National in Paris, the long-time host of the Open de France. Admittedly there’s an element of hit and hope about this strategy because the course has not been used on any men’s tour so we’re lacking any clues in that direction, but if it does pan out then a name worth noting might be Matthew Southgate.

The Englishman is in need of a good week since he lies 115th on the Race to Dubai with only the top 110 retaining their cards for next year. His long game has been excellent, but his Strokes Gained: Putting stats have been horrible which is why his performance on the greens last week is worthy of interest – it was comfortably his best of the summer. And what if that Le Golf links works out? Well, he was 11th there in 2016 and fifth last year. It’s only three starts since he made the top ten in Sweden, an effort that included a 65 and a 64, and he’s 66/1 this week.

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