Ignore the ‘Battle of Britain’ hype: Scotland’s ‘Auld Enemy’ will comfortably triumph at Wembley

Ignore the ‘Battle of Britain’ hype: Scotland’s ‘Auld Enemy’ will comfortably triumph at Wembley

England and Scotland meet a major tournament for only the second time

PRIOR to their first major tournament for 23 years there were significant reasons for Scotland to believe they could really make their mark at Euro 2020. Granted, some of these were more like good omens in hindsight but still, when allied with a strong dose of patriotic fervour and a greater amount of excitement it meant the Scots went into this competition with their tails up and in fine fettle.

Under the pragmatic governance of Steve Clarke, Scotland had compiled their longest unbeaten run since the mid-fifties across much of last year, while the stoic nature of their two Play-Off triumphs eradicated any inherent self-doubt. The ‘free transfer’ of Che Adams in March meanwhile added Premier League firepower to a side that was perhaps overly reliant on an impressive scoring streak from midfielder John McGinn who was relatively shot-shy for Aston Villa last season but transformed into Denis Law whenever he donned an international jersey. For the record, McGinn scored three in 37 for Villa in 2020/21 but has bagged ten in his last 19 appearances for his country.

McGinn is 13/1 to score anytime this Friday against England but with 43% of Scotland’s goals in the last two years coming from crosses a better shout is front-man Lyndon Dykes at 21/4.

There was further cause for optimism when the draw came out, with Scotland pitted against two sides they have previously fared well against. Historically, they have never lost to Croatia and Czech Republic had been bettered three times in recent years. Better yet, these games would be held at Hampden Park with ten thousand of the Tartan Army roaring them on.

All things considered then it was only natural that a far-fetched thought flickered away in a nation’s consciousness. Maybe, just maybe Scotland could ‘do a Wales’ this summer.

Then came their opening day loss on Monday, courtesy of two sucker-punches from Patrik Schick, one a ridiculous effort from fifty yards into an unguarded net. At the other end, chances were spurned as a feeling grew and grew that this was just not their day.

Precisely to what extent this has stalled Scotland’s momentum – and more importantly, their spirit – remains to be seen and indeed it will be seen on Friday evening at Wembley stadium as they take on group favourites England. It could be argued that the ‘auld enemy’ is the perfect opposition for such a circumstance as this; a familiar and hated foe guaranteed to immediately blow air back into Scotland’s tyres and furthermore – though this is a stretch – it could also be reasoned that the 19/2 underdogs want and need a result more here. A defeat and progress to the knock-outs becomes a slim ambition at best. Gareth Southgate meanwhile is rumoured to be considering a shuffling of his pack, having already secured a priceless win over their toughest group rivals, Croatia.

This though is as far as we get when it comes to positively promoting Scotland’s chances this week and that’s because every statistic and instinct suggests joy for the Three Lions. The win will be a narrow one for sure, and difficult to attain. But it will be a victory nonetheless and in fact, that punt on Dykes mentioned above should only be viewed as an insurance bet on the off-chance the Scots score.

Expect to see a certain wondergoal from 1996 on a virtual loop in the days to come. A quarter of a century on, in the same venue and tournament, featuring the same sides, you can get 23/5 on a repeat 2-0 score-line from that memorable afternoon, only minus Gazza’s brilliance.

There are numerous reasons why this conclusion is reached so let’s start with the least pertinent and work our way up.

Scotland have only vanquished their neighbour once south of the border since 1981 and it hardly bodes well that the last occasion they met at Wembley in 2016, England strolled to a comfortable 3-0 win.

As for this particular fixture, there appears to be a serious misread from pundits as regards to the expected narrative of the game, with many predicting a blood and thunder, typically all-British affair; the type that levels out quality and for that reason plays into Scottish hands.

In reality it will be nothing of the sort. For starters, this is not the nineteen-eighties and the days of a combative defender leaving stud marks on a winger’s delicate calf early doors are long gone. Frankly, if Scotland tear into their adversary as many as predicting them to, they will be a man down inside ten minutes. 

No, here, the occasion and the fact that it’s the 21^st century will dictate proceedings far more than the nationality of the players and, as we have become accustomed to in the modern era when one home nation takes on another, it will be a strategic game of chess played out on lush green turf. And it is England who possess by far and away the better pieces. 

Which presents us with something of a problem because this is hardly breaking news and England’s superiority – and infinitely better goal-scoring ratio - is suitably reflected in the match-day odds. This means a slightly deeper dive is required.

Corners are as good a place as any to begin. Ignore the 13/2 available for Scotland to win more than their sassenach counterparts because that simply won’t happen. Over 3.5 corners for Scotland however is a terrific bet with Clarke’s side averaging 5.7 per game in the last two years.

The Match Events market is also a potential gold-mine with the time for the first goal to be scored standing out. You can get 7/2 for the opening strike to occur between the 30-minute mark and the end of the first half and a long-standing Achilles heel for Scotland is to concede during this period. England meanwhile have converted 54% of their goal-haul since 2019 in the first period and it should be factored in too that the contest is expected to be tight and cautious in its initial stages.

Lastly, England to win both halves at 41/20 is a natural extension on the projection of a 2-0 score-line with Southgate’s men going ahead in the opening 45 minutes.

Don’t anticipate fireworks on Friday nor a dust-up of old. Instead, England will patiently and clinically seek out opportunities where their class tells. That will leave Scotland to focus on Croatia, and one last distant shot at glory.

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