Copa America: Can Undercooked Chile Challenge Dominant Brazil?

Copa America: Can Undercooked Chile Challenge Dominant Brazil?

Brazil vs Chile

Brazil’s bid to defend their Copa America crown on home soil is going very smoothly indeed. They had no problem getting past the group stage as they sealed first place in Group B with a match to spare.

Their reward for claiming top spot is a quarter-final clash with Chile. La Roja were disappointing during the group stage as they finished a mere fourth in Group A with just one win in four.

But while the Copa America 2021 betting odds will have them as major underdogs against Brazil in Rio de Janeiro, they will have star striker Alexis Sanchez back from injury, which could give the hosts more problems than expected.

Talking Points

Brazil firing on all cylinders at the Copa America

Brazil have been undoubtedly the best team in the Copa America thus far. The Selecao swept through the group stage with three wins in their first three matches, which confirmed them as group winners.

As a result, manager Tite was able to rotate and give other players in the squad a run-out in their final group game, a 1-1 draw with Ecuador. But their big stars, namely Neymar, Thiago Silva, Casemiro, Richarlison, and Gabriel Jesus are all expected to return to the starting lineup against Chile.

Neymar has been terrific in the tournament. He has four goals + assists (two each), which is second only to former teammate Lionel Messi. Richarlison has been similarly impressive with two goals + assists and 10 total shots.

Meanwhile, the Brazilian defence has also been a big reason for the team’s success thus far with just two goals conceded in four games. Prior to conceding an early goal against Colombia, Brazil had gone on a run of six straight clean sheets.

The presence of Casemiro in the heart of the midfield has been so crucial to their solidity. Fred and Lucas Paqueta were the preferred midfielders either side of him, and Tite is unlikely to make any significant change to a lineup which has been performing quite well.

Unimpressive Chile finally set to get Sanchez back

Chile are clearly not on the level that they were when they won back-to-back Copa America championships in 2015 and 2016. Their two superstars – Alexis Sanchez and Arturo Vidal – as well as other key members of their golden generation – Eduardo Vargas, Charles Aranguiz, Gary Medel – are now all in their 30s.

Their ageing squad laboured to a fourth-place finish in the group stage, with their lone win coming against bottom-club Bolivia.

Although, it should be noted that Alexis Sanchez – the country’s all-time leading scorer with 46 goals – missed all four group matches due to a calf injury, which severely limited their attack. They scored just three goals in Alexis’ absence, with Vargas scoring two to reach 40 career goals for his country in 99 appearances.

And while they suffered a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Paraguay, their defence held up fairly well against Argentina and Uruguay, holding both to 1-1 draws.

The big Copa America 2021 news is that Sanchez looks set to return to the side, although it remains to be seen whether he will be ready to start against Brazil after a lengthy layoff. And even if he does start, just how effective would he be against Brazil’s terrific backline?

But despite their limitations, Chile will almost surely play as hard as possible and give Brazil perhaps their toughest battle yet in this tournament.

History

Brazil have absolutely dominated Chile in their historical head-to-heads. The Selecao have an overwhelming 51-8 advantage in terms of wins, with just 13 draws.

Chile have claimed just one win over Brazil in the last 21 years. That came in qualifying for World Cup 2016. Eduardo Vargas and Alexis Sanchez two late goals to give La Roja the 2-0 win.

The two teams last met in the Copa America in 2007. They faced off both in the group stage and in the quarter-finals. Brazil won the group-stage match 3-0 thanks to a hat-trick by Robinho, then won the quarter-final 6-1, with Robinho scoring two more goals.

Betting Tip

Brazil Asian Handicap -1.50 @ 2.25

Unsurprisingly, SBOTOP odds have pegged Brazil as 1.37 favourites to win and progress to the semi-finals. Chile have been priced at 8.25 to pull off the upset, with a draw at 4.40.

The pessimism about Chile is understandable given how unimpressive they were in the group stage. And while Sanchez looks set to return, he could be rusty and unable to make massive impact.

But even if Sanchez is at full strength, this Brazil side is playing so well that they should still win. With Neymar back to his best and the defence looking unbeatable, the hosts should brush past Chile quite comfortably.

Disclaimer: Odds are correct at time of publish.

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