Matt Cooper: The Genesis Invitational betting preview – DJ ready to spin again

Matt Cooper: The Genesis Invitational betting preview – DJ ready to spin again

Matt Cooper takes a look at the PGA Tour’s visit this week to Los Angeles

LAST week the PGA Tour took tournament nominative determinism to absurd lengths. When the par-3 16th hole witnessed two holes-in-one at the weekend the crowds around the stadium hole hurled beer cans and tumblers at the green in both celebration and as some sort of meta-like test of the event sponsor Waste Management. Further proof that we’re living in bizarre times.

This week the circuit completes the West Coast Swing with the Genesis Invitational which takes place in swish Pacific Palisades in Los Angeles, home to the great and the good of that glitzy city.

The host, Riviera Country Club, is extremely popular with many celebrities and, this week, it is also open to the stars of fairways and greens. In fact, they are out in force. Jon Rahm heads the betting, in-form Patrick Cantlay is not far behind, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele are all primed. Our picks, however, come from elsewhere. Fresh from three place payouts in a row, let’s hope this week we hit the bullseye.

Each Way – Dustin Johnson at 18/1

This time last year DJ was absolutely flying. His eighth placed finish in this event was a 10th top 10 in a row, a run that included victory in the Masters and a return to the top of the world rankings. He’d entered the final round in LA lying second, but closed with a 72 and would little know that it would be the last of the limelight he’d see for quite a while.

Only in the late months of 2021 did he start to revisit the top 10 with any frequency and it is only in the opening weeks of 2022 that his stats have started to suggest that his game is getting back to its best. He opened the year at Torrey Pines where his Strokes Gained Tee to Green numbers were easily his best since that sensational run, fuelled by one of his best Off the Tee efforts in a year and comfortably his best Approach performance in 12 months. We don’t have his stats from his other appearance this year, but he was eighth in Saudi Arabia.

Of Riviera he said in 2017, after completing victory in his sixth top four finish: “Feels good because I should have won a couple other times. Definitely nice to win on a course and a tournament I really enjoy.” He’s backed that up since and looks ripe for a return to better ways.

Each Way – Bubba Watson at 40/1

DJ has an exceptional course record at Riviera, but Bubba Watson has a ridiculous one, albeit somewhat boom or bust. He’s played the track 15 times, missed seven cuts, finished in the top 20 every time he’s made the weekend and here’s the clincher: he’s a three-time winner.

“I love it, I love being back here,” he said in 2019, going on to explain that it goes beyond the test – the vibe around the tournament and host course gets his brain fizzing. “This is a cool place to be. I love the golf course and obviously winning makes you love it a lot more, but I loved it even when I was missing cuts. And I love Hollywood, I loved hanging out with some of the boys from The Big Bang Theory, then going to Warner Brothers.”

We’d seen nothing of Watson from mid-August through January, but he’s re-emerged in great nick, finishing second in Saudi Arabia and T14th last week at the Phoenix Open. He’s got a lot of big names to topple, but if he maintains his mojo he’s got the game to do so and that quality at the top of the market also allows his price to stay juicy enough for support.

Each Way – Francesco Molinari at 150/1

It’s been a very odd time for Italy’s Francesco Molinari in the aftermath of his sensational 2018. For a few months of 2019 that form was maintained, but when he stumbled in the final round of the Masters it seemed as if he’d taken a brutal upper cut to his jaw and it’s taken a while for his head to recover.

One element of the recovery has involved a family relocation to LA and he’s based himself at Riviera. A contact of mine there indicates that he’s happy there and he said as much himself ahead of last year’s event. “It’s a tournament I’ve always loved, but unfortunately I never really played that well in the past,” he admitted. “Now I’ve got to know and play the course better and better. Hopefully the rounds I’ve got in this winter mean that on the greens, with strategy and shot selection, I can have more success around here.” He duly finished tied eighth.

That fits something of a pattern: Molinari has become a really good golfer in his new home state. He’s not missed a cut in his last seven starts in California and five times he’s finished T13th or better. In the last year alone he has that top 10 at Riviera, T13th in the US Open at Torrey Pines, then tied sixth and T62nd at The American Express and Farmers Insurance Open last month. He’s undoubtedly fragile, but when his old quality has been rekindled in recent times it has been in conditions he’’ encounter this week.

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