UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje

UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje

Inform your MMA predictions ahead of the Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje fight with insight, analysis, and odds from Pinnacle.

Charles Oliveira makes the second defence of his UFC Lightweight title against Justin Gaethje. Can Oliveira keep the belt or will Gaethje become the new champion? Read on to inform your Oliveira vs. Gaethje predictions.

Event: UFC 274

Date: May 7, 2022

Venue:Footprint Center (Arizona, USA)

Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje: Tale of the Tape

Oliveira won the vacant UFC Lightweight title at UFC 262 courtesy of a TKO victory over Michael Chandler. He then successfully defended it at UFC 269 when he claimed a submission victory over Dustin Poirier. That win against Poirier extended Oliveira’s winning streak to 10 fights.

Gaethje gets his second shot at the UFC Lightweight title in Phoenix, Arizona. He won the interim belt courtesy of a TKO victory over Tony Ferguson at UFC 249 but lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov in a unification bout at UFC 254. Gaethje has only fought once since that loss, beating Michael Chandler via unanimous decision at UFC 268.

Analysing the Oliveira vs. Gaethje odds

Oliveira is the 1.581* favourite to pick up the win at the Footprint Center, equating to an approximate 61.07% chance of victory. Gaethje can be backed at 2.480*, which translates to a 38.93% likelihood of victory.

Oliveira vs. Gaethje: fighting styles analysed

Oliveira’s background lies in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and he won several major titles in his homeland of Brazil before transitioning to MMA. He went 12-0 after turning professional and was subsequently signed by the UFC.

“Do Bronx” still relies heavily on his Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills and 20 of his 32 victories have come via submission. The 32-year-old holds the record for the most submission wins in the UFC (15). He can’t be underestimated if the fighters remain on their feet, picking up nine KO/TKO victories and his TKO win over Chandler at UFC 262 broke the UFC record for the most finishes, which now stands at 18, which includes KO/TKO and submission.

Gaethje is a two-time Arizona State high school wrestling champion and an NCAA Division I All-American; however, he doesn’t tend to rely on his wrestling skills too often. The 33-year-old tends to opt for a more entertaining stand-up approach and has earned a reputation for being a striker. “The Highlight” boasts 19 KO/TKO wins, with just one win by submission and three via a decision. Gaethje also possesses extremely potent leg kicks and often utilises them to debilitate his opponent before launching attacks with his hands.

Oliveira vs. Gaethje: where is the value?

Oliveira holds the edge when it comes to experience, starting his professional career three years earlier than Gaethje, and he has 15 more fights under his belt. However, Gaethje was competing for the UFC Lightweight title in just his seventh UFC fight, while Oliveira had to wait until his 28th bout under the UFC banner to get his chance.

It’s hard to disagree with the odds when trying to pick a winner, with Oliveira coming into his own over the past four years. He’s riding a 10-fight win streak, including wins over the number one-ranked Poirier, Chandler (ranked fifth), and Ferguson (ranked seventh). Gaethje also has wins over Ferguson and Chandler on his recent record; however, Oliveira overcame those rivals in a more convincing fashion.

The outcome of this fight depends largely on where the majority of the contest plays out. Oliveira holds the advantage on the canvas and Gaethje is the better striker. A 73% takedown rate for Gaethje suggests Oliveira will have his work cut out in trying to carry out his gameplan. But it is worth taking into account that Oliveira didn’t need to secure a takedown when beating Poirier last time out. He was able to take his opponents back from a standing position before securing victory via a rear-naked choke.

Backing Oliveira to earn another victory via submission looks like the best value bet in this contest, especially when considering how much Gaethje struggled to deal with Nurmagomedov before losing via submission.

*Odds subject to change

 

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