Major League Baseball Predictions

The main story going into the World Series is that there are two wild card teams playing for the ultimate prize in Major League Baseball. It must be noted, however, that the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers bring vastly different statistical profiles into the series.

The Diamondbacks won 84 games. Outscored by 15 runs during the regular season, they are the first team since the 1987 Minnesota Twins to reach the World Series despite a negative run differential during the regular season.

On the other hand, the Rangers were leading the American League West for much of the season and finished in a tie with the Houston Astros, only losing the division crown based on their head-to-head record against Houston. The Rangers had a run differential during the season of plus-165, the fourth highest in MLB, so they have a statistical profile that is more befitting of a team playing for the championship.

While there might be some concern about a team with Arizona’s mediocre profile playing to win the title, the expanded baseball playoffs open the door for a team to get hot at the right time and make a run to the championship, and Arizona is taking advantage of the opportunity.

The World Series begins on Friday, October 27 in Texas.

Can Arizona keep up with Texas' big bats?

During the regular season, the Rangers were one of the top hitting teams in Major League Baseball by any metric. They ranked third in runs scored, second in batting average (AVG), third in on-base percentage (OBP), third in slugging percentage (SLG), and third in weighted runs created plus (wRC+).

Middle infielders Corey Seager and Marcus Semien were the offensive standouts for Texas, but right fielder Adolis García slugged 39 home runs, while first baseman Nathaniel Lowe and rookie third baseman Josh Jung were both above-average offensive performers, too.

Designated hitter Mitch Garver was very productive when healthy, and Texas received a late-season boost when they promoted 21-year-old left fielder Evan Carter, who delivered a 1.058 on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS) in 23 games at the end of the regular season.

In the playoffs, Seager has continued to excel. He was named the National League Championship Series MVP and World Series MVP with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2020, so he has risen to the occasion before in the playoffs. This year, Seager has a dozen walks, leading to a .483 on-base percentage and 1.127 OPS in 58 plate appearances.

García has been a postseason force, with seven home runs, 20 runs batted in, and a 1.102 OPS in 54 plate appearances. He crushed five home runs in the last four games of the American League Championship Series against Houston, and was named American League Championship Series MVP.

Carter has hit six doubles on his way to a .987 OPS in 49 postseason plate appearances. With Texas’ big bats booming in the playoffs, it is somewhat surprising to see Semien struggling, managing a .507 OPS in 58 plate appearances. Nevertheless, Texas brings a formidable line-up into the World Series.

During the regular season, the Diamondbacks were mediocre offensively. They were tied for 14th in runs scored, 14th in batting average, 14th in on-base percentage, 17th in slugging percentage, and 18th in weighted runs created plus (wRC+).

Rookie right fielder Corbin Carroll is the standout for Arizona. He had 25 home runs and 54 stolen bases to go with a team-best .868 OPS. Second baseman Ketel Marte, first baseman Christian Walker, and left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. were all above average too, but the Diamondbacks were not striking fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.

The playoffs have been a different story. Marte was named MVP of the National League Championship Series and is riding a 16-game postseason hitting streak. Carroll has continued to perform, and while Gurriel and Walker have not been as productive, that slack has been picked up by centre fielder Alek Thomas and catcher Gabriel Moreno, a pair of 23-year-olds who have combined for seven home runs in 12 postseason games. If the Diamondbacks are going to pull off the upset, they will need their bats to stay hot.

Which Rangers or Diamondbacks pitchers will rise to the occasion?

During the regular season, neither team was especially impressive on the mound. Injuries played a part in Texas’ struggles, as they ranked 18th with a 4.28 earned run average (ERA) and 4.31 fielding independent pitching stat (FIP).

Arizona ranked 20th with a 4.48 ERA and 19th with a 4.35 FIP, so the arms were not typically driving results for these teams on their way to earning a playoff berth.

Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery have provided the Rangers with outstanding starting pitching in their eight postseason starts, combining for a 2.29 ERA in 51 innings. After that, it gets shaky. Andrew Heaney and Max Scherzer have both started two games, combining for an ERA of 8.25 in the postseason. Scherzer has the credentials and big-game experience to make the difference, but he is also 39 years old and has been battling a shoulder injury.

Texas’ bullpen has been suspect. José LeClerc has three postseason saves, but has also surrendered three home runs in 10 1/3 innings. Josh Sborz and Aroldis Chapman have been effective in setup roles.

The Diamondbacks have leaned on three starting pitchers in the postseason, with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Brandon Pfaadt combining to make 11 of 12 playoff starts. Gallen, the staff ace, has a 5.24 ERA and just 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings in his four playoff starts, but Kelly and the rookie Pfaadt have both been excellent, combining for a 2.67 ERA in 33 2/3 innings between them.

Closer Paul Sewald and setup man Kevin Ginkel have been overpowering at the end of games, striking out 24 batters while not allowing any runs in 17 innings. If the games are close, Arizona might have a late-inning edge on the mound.

The Rangers are favoured to take the World Series, priced at -175* on Pinnacle. The Diamondbacks are at +154* to pull off the upset, but it appears that Texas should have enough to overpower Arizona. It has looked like that for other Diamondbacks opponents too, but the pick here is for the Rangers to get it done and win the first World Series in franchise history.

Bet: MLB Odds