UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo

Inform your MMA predictions ahead of the Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo fight with insight, analysis, and odds from Pinnacle.

Event: UFC 288

Date: May 7, 2023

Venue: Prudential Center (New Jersey, USA)

Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo: Tale of the Tape

Aljamain Sterling is defending his bantamweight title for the third time, after initially winning the belt when Petr Yan was disqualified for using an illegal knee in their meeting at UFC 259.

Sterling has since beaten Yan in a rematch, winning by decision at UFC 273, and he earned a TKO win over T.J. Dillashaw in his second defence of the title at UFC 280.

Henry Cejudo is returning to competitive action for the first time since he successfully defended the bantamweight title against Dominick Cruz at UFC 249 in May 2020

Analysing the Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo odds

Champion Sterling is the 1.980* underdog, with his odds equating to an approximate 48.76% chance of victory. Challenger Cejudo can be backed at 1.884*, which translates to a 51.24% chance of winning.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo: fighting styles analysed

Sterling is a fantastic grappler and boasts a very strong wrestling game, something that allows him to lean into his ability to secure victory by submission.

The 33-year-old is always looking to attack his opponent’s back, leading to the nickname 'the human backpack', and is completely at home on the canvas.

However, he is far from the complete package, and has plenty of holes in his game when it comes to striking, winning just three of his fights by knockout.

Cejudo is also a high-level wrestler, becoming the youngest American to win gold at the 2008 Olympics in Beijing.

‘Triple C’ doesn't seek submissions in the same way that Sterling does, having failed to win a single fight via that route. He's more than happy just to grind his rival down to secure the win by decision.

His stand-up skills are superior to Sterling, especially in the clinch, and he has won eight fights by knockout.

Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo: where is the value?

It's the year of the comeback in the UFC, with Jon Jones recently returning from a three-year hiatus to win the vacant heavyweight title. Cejudo, who has also spent three years outside the cage, is looking to follow in his footsteps.

Both Jones and Cejudo would feature in many people's picks for the UFC Mount Rushmore with their legacy having already been sealed.

Jones had no issues stepping back into the Octagon after a three-year absence, beating Ciryl Gane by submission in the first round, but Cejudo isn't likely to enjoy such an emphatic return.

Champion Sterling should be able to match Cejudo in wrestling ability, or at least nullify some of his strengths, so it's tough to pick a winner here.

With their key attributes well matched, it could prove to be a long night, and backing over 4.5 rounds at 1.641* looks like the way to go.

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*Odds subject to change

 

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