US PGA Championship 2023: betting preview

The 105th PGA Championship takes place at Oak Hill Country Club, in Rochester, New York. The PGA has the strongest Field of all the majors, and Oak Hill will be hosting this tournament for the fourth time. Past champions at this club include Jack Nicklaus, Shaun Micheel, and Jason Dufner. 15-time major champion Tiger Woods will be absent from the event after ankle surgery in April.

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The course - PGA Championship 2023

The East Course was designed by Donald Ross, and has hosted three US Opens, three PGA Championships, and the 1995 Ryder Cup.

This venue is regarded as one of the fairest by tour professionals, especially after its revamp by Alan Green in 2019.

The old-style parkland golf course now has bigger greens and fewer water hazards and trees. However, it is a brutally long par 70 of 7,400 yards, which aligns with the recent trend of PGA Championships being suited to long hitters. Other Donald Ross courses feature on the PGA Tour schedule, so it is worth pointing out that Rory McIlroy and Tony Finau should play well here.

Who makes up the PGA Championship Field? 

The top 100 players of the Official World Golf Ranking will be competing, as well as LIV golfers who meet the qualification requirements. There will be a total of 156 golfers teeing it up, which is nearly double that of The Masters. In any case, we can disregard the twenty PGA club professionals who will likely not be able to match the skill levels on display here, and focus on betting on the tour professionals.

What to consider 

The biggest factor to consider for the players is the weather. With the championship being moved from August to May, the northeastern destination will be softer and colder than it is during the Summer months. We could see very similar weather conditions to what competitors faced at The Masters, playing into the hands of the big hitters once again.

The key statistics I am looking for are length, and high strokes gained: tee-to-green numbers. Every winner of the PGA Championship in the past decade has averaged over 295 yards. With the last seven winners being American, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that I am edging towards the following golfers to perform well.

PGA Championship 2023: Favourites

Scottie Scheffler

The forgotten man thanks to Jon Rahm’s win at Augusta, the Texan will once again slip under the radar. Scheffler 9.900 [+890] leads strokes gained: tee-to-green by 0.4 shots over second-placed Rahm, which equates to over 1.5 shots more over a tournament week. He is also top of the charts on par 4 scoring. With the East Course only have two par 5s, this stat becomes vital.

Tony Finau 

The man originally couldn’t win, but now cannot stop lifting trophies, with four victories in his last twenty starts on the PGA Tour. The American averages over 300 yards from the tee, and thanks to a vastly improved approach game, he currently finds himself 11th in the world rankings. Finau’s 29.420 [+2842] carefree attitude and ability to close the deal have elevated him to a favourite in my book.

PGA Championship 2023: Value plays

Xander Schauffele

The 25-year-old has an outstanding record on another Donald Ross designed course called East Lake, which is where the Tour Championship is held annually. The Californian has finished inside the top five in the last five consecutive years. He is yet to win a major, but has 10 top 10 finishes to his name in 23 appearances. Thanks to a stroke average of 69.5 this season, he claimed second place at Wells Fargo recently. Schauffele 22.710 [+2171] is running into form at just the right time.

Patrick Cantlay

The Californian is third in par 4 scoring, and fifth overall in the scoring average this year on the PGA Tour. The 31-year-old has had a steady run of consecutive top 15 finishes in the last three majors. Many say the former world number one amateur is the best player to not to win a major. With odds of 22.710 [+2171], could this be the time he finally claims one for himself?

PGA Championship 2023: The outsiders 

Tyrrell Hatton

His odds are so much longer than his form would suggest. Hatton 65.200 [+6420] has had four top 10 finishes this season on the PGA Tour, including second place at The Players Championship thanks to a wonderful final round of 65. The 31-year-old is known for excelling on difficult golf courses, demonstrated by his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Hatton has a superb iron game and makes putts when it counts. 

Keegan Bradley 

Keegan plays well on golf courses close to home, highlighted by his top 10 finish in Boston at last year’s US Open. The PGA champion of 2011 has a fantastic record in this major, with only two missed cuts in his 12 appearances. He sits sixth in the FedEx Cup standings without missing a putt from four feet all season, and is the most efficient driver of the golf ball on tour. This is an ideal combination for a strong major performance, especially with odds of 102.490 [+11094].

I hope this has helped guide you through some players to consider. Please enjoy the PGA Championship, and good luck with your selections. Feel informed and ready to make your PGA Championship 2023 picks? Check out Pinnacle’s unrivalled odds on all things PGA Championship here.

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